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AXUS72 KMLB 171820
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Drought Information Statement 
National Weather Service Melbourne FL 
120 PM EST Thu Jan 17 2019

...Drought Conditions Worsening Over the Southeast Sections 
of East Central Florida... 

Synopsis... 

Below normal rainfall has occurred over the southeast sections of 
east central Florida since late summer, 2018. The lack of rainfall 
coupled with a warmer than normal temperatures during the fall and 
early winter has allowed for severe drought conditions (D2) to 
develop over much of south Brevard and Indian River counties 
extending south through eastern portions of St Lucie and Martin 
counties. The remaining inland sections of these counties, along 
with much of north and central Brevard, eastern Osceola and all of 
Okeechobee counties have moderate drought (D1) conditions occurring. 

   
Summary of Impacts...

State and Local Impacts: According to the Florida Division of 
Forestry...there are no burn bans in effect at this time for
the east central Florida areas in moderate to severe drought.

Soil Moisture Conditions: As of January 16, 2019 the Keetch-Byram 
Drought Index (KBDI) values are range from 450 to 499 in eastern 
sections of southern Brevard and St Lucie counties to 500-549 in 
eastern Martin county and 550-599 in eastern Indian River county. 

Groundwater Conditions:
The latest groundwater conditions from the United States Geological 
Survey (USGS) as of Friday, January 11 indicates groundwater levels 
that are below normal to much below normal for this time of year.  

River and Stream Flow Conditions: The latest seven day average 
streamflow from the USGS as of Tuesday, January 15 indicates below 
normal to much below normal streamflow for this time of year. 

Fire Danger Hazards: 
According to the National Interagency Fire Center, the potential for 
significant wildland fires is near normal through late January. 


Climate Summary... 

Here are the latest rainfall statistics for select sites across east
central Florida:

Since July 1, 2018 (Through January 16, 2019):

Station         Observed      Normal      Departure    Percent of 
                Rainfall     Rainfall    From Normal     Normal

Melbourne        14.40"       32.92"      -18.52"          44%
Vero Beach       20.37"       31.12"      -10.75"          65%
Titusville       17.09"       23.72"       -9.91"          71% 
Fort Pierce      19.48"       28.35"       -8.87"          69%
Stuart WP        18.18"       38.80"      -20.62"          47%
Kenansville      27.58"
Kiss. Prairie    23.31"

Past 90 Days (Through January 16, 2019): 

Station         Observed      Normal      Departure    Percent of 
                Rainfall     Rainfall    From Normal     Normal


Melbourne         3.30"        8.32"       -5.02"          40%
Vero Beach        3.55"        8.39"       -4.84"          42%
Titusville        6.23"        8.54"       -2.30"          73%
Fort Pierce       4.86"        7.92"       -3.06"          61%
Stuart WP         3.93"       10.51"       -6.58"          37%
Kenansville       4.26"
Kiss. Prairie     2.73"


Precipitation and Temperature Outlook...

The forecast through the next week shows the only chance for 
measureable rainfall will be Saturday night into Sunday ahead of
a cold front. Rainfall amounts are expected to be generally be 
in the quarter to half inch range.

The Climate Prediction Center's (CPC) 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks, 
which cover the period through January 30 indicate higher chances 
for below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation across 
much of the area. 

Three Month Outlook (February-March-April): The latest CPC outlook
shows greater than normal chances of above normal precipitation and 
equal chances of above normal, normal or below normal temperatures 
in east central Florida for February through April.  

Next Issuance Date... 
The next drought statement will be issued by the end of January, or
sooner if significant changes in drought conditions occur.  

&&

Related Web Sites...

Additional information on current drought conditions may be found at 
the following web sites (some of the sites may be unavailalbe during
the government shutdown):

U.S. Drought Monitor: http://www.droughtmonitor.unl.edu
U.S. Drought Portal: http://www.drought.gov
Southeast Regional Climate Center: http://www.sercc.com 
Climate Prediction Center: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov 
Florida Division of Forestry: http://www.freshfromflorida.com/
Division-Offices/Florida-Forest-Service
South Florida Water Management District: http://www.sfwmd.gov
Saint Johns River Water Management District: http://www.sjrwmd.com
United State Geological Survey Orlando: http://fl.water.usgs.gov
NWS Melbourne Dry Season Outlook: www.weather.gov/mlb/mlbnino

Acknowledgments: Information for this report was provided by the 
following: The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center, 
Florida Division of Forestry, National Drought Mitigation Center, 
the United States Geological Survey, South Florida Water Management 
District, Saint Johns River Water Management District, and the 
National Weather Service in Melbourne. 

If you have any questions or comments on this drought information 
statement, please contact:

National Weather Service Melbourne 
421 Croton Rd
Melbourne FL 32935 
Phone: 321-255-0212
Email: sr-mlb.webmaster@noaa.gov 
Website: www.weather.gov/mlb

$$

Glitto