National Weather Service Text Product
AFOS product AFDABQ
Dates interpreted at 00:00 UTCDisplaying AFOS PIL: AFDABQ
Product Timestamp: 2019-01-17 09:57 UTC
Bulk Download
Bulk Download Help
This bulk download tool provides the NWS text
in a raw form, hopefully directly usable by your processing system.
You can either provide a complete 6-character PIL/AFOS ID or provide
the 3-character base ID (e.g., AFD). The start and end
dates represent 00 UTC for those dates. The Zip format is useful as
the filenames will have the product timestamp, which is useful for
when the product format has ambiguous timestamps.
528 FXUS65 KABQ 170957 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 257 AM MST Thu Jan 17 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Pleasant weather is on-tap for today with high cirrus moving overhead. The next winter storm system will swing through New Mexico starting in the Four Corners late tonight, spreading through much of the northern two-thirds of the state Friday. Snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches will occur atop the northern mountains, with a foot likely atop the Tusas Mountains in Rio Arriba County. Lower elevations across the west and north will see a dusting to 3 inches through Friday evening. Strong northwest winds reaching up to 25 to 30 mph across the west and 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 50 to 60 mph across the east will accompany this system making it feel colder with highs struggling to get into the 40s. The East Plains however will hold onto warmer weather for one more day with colder air delayed until Friday night. Cold air lingers Saturday with calmer conditions. A warming trend takes hold Sunday into Monday with the next winter storm system looking to arrive late Monday night into Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... ...WINTER STORM SYSTEM FRIDAY TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW ATOP NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WITH POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH... Today...A quick shortwave ridge will work its way over NM with high cirrus also building over the northern tier of the state. Temperatures on the whole will warm up today, however a few lower elevation locales that over performed yesterday may see MaxTs a degree or two lower today as a result of the high cirrus cloud cover, like ABQ and Roswell. Tonight - Friday...The next winter storm system is still progged to enter into the Four Corners late tonight into Fri morning. Snow showers will start entering into the Chuska's and Northwest Highlands in the 8p-11p timeframe, increasing in intensity well into Fri morning. Pre-frontal SW flow will allow for the best snowfall accumulations over the northwest high terrain through the early morning hours of Fri before winds shift more W/NW. At that time, the west slopes of the Sangre's will get into the action through the morning hours. Snow accumulations across the north start tapering off near mid-day once the trough axis moves through, but lasting through the afternoon period. Northern NM should fare well with snow accumulations with 4 to 9 inches likely atop the higher terrain and up to a foot atop the Tusas Mountains. The quick progression of this system however just doesn't allow enough time for very significant snowfall over a foot to occur. Winter Wx Advisories will be hoisted for the northern mtns with a Winter Storm Warning for the Tusas where accumulations will reach up near a foot. Meanwhile, models have trended back north a bit placing the strong 50-60kt 700mb jet squarely over NM. With the trough axis moving over the south-central mtns at mid-afternoon and peak mixing, winds have trended much higher with this forecast package. Areas stretching from Clines Corners to Ruidoso in the Sacramento's will be in the High Wind Warning neighborhood with Advisories likely elsewhere for Fri afternoon into Fri evening. A High Wind Watch will be hoisted as a result. Later Fri, a backdoor cold front will swing through the East Plains. The quick progression of the upper trough, which will be trying to close off over the TX Panhandle will prevent the backdoor front from making too much progression westward. Strong northerly winds 25 to 35 mph will accompany the front through the northeast plains. Next Week...Colder weather stays in place Saturday with overnight valley inversions setting up Sunday morning. A steady warmup will occur Sun and Mon, with the next colder winter storm system set to arrive Mon night into Tue. A NW flow pattern sets up during this time with a steady stream of weather disturbances/storms moving down the spine of the Rockies through next week. 24/RJH && .FIRE WEATHER... A ridge of high pressure will work over the Rockies today, leading to less wind, dry conditions, and near to above average temperatures. Moderate breeziness will still be found along the Sangre de Cristos and eastward into the northeastern plains of NM today, but overall speeds will be significantly less than what was observed yesterday. Scattered to widespread areas of poor smoke ventilation are expected through the afternoon. No critical concerns are foreseen through the remainder of the week with the next potent trough of low pressure and associated cold front taking aim at NM tonight into early Saturday. Forecast models are pegging much stronger winds over the state Friday with widespread gusts of 45 to 60 mph now being forecast. Snow will favor the northern mountains with less precipitation near and just south of Interstate 40, but cooling temperatures and higher humidity will preclude critical fire weather concerns. Drier and more settled weather is expected for the weekend with Saturday remaining cool to mild before rising a few to several degrees on Sunday. Another stout trough will drop over NM Monday into early Tuesday with strong winds, colder temperatures, and light precipitation. Prior to the arrival of the cooler temperatures, some elevated fire weather concerns could grow over the eastern plains (due to strong winds and decreasing humidity), and this will be monitored closely in the coming days. 52 && .AVIATION... 06Z TAF CYCLE Wind speeds will continue to slowly decrease across the Sangre de Cristo and Sandia Mountains and adjacent highlands overnight. Winds will increase again Thursday afternoon along and east of the Sangres, but winds will not be as strong as today. Still have low confidence regarding low cloud development over KFMN and KGUP. High clouds are moving in quickly, though there is only a 2 degree dewpoint depression currently. Based on the progression of the high clouds, KGUP has higher chances of seeing low cloud and/or fog development overnight. Will put in a TEMPO group for now and monitor. 34 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 45 33 39 18 / 5 80 60 0 Dulce........................... 41 28 35 8 / 5 90 70 5 Cuba............................ 45 28 33 14 / 0 80 70 5 Gallup.......................... 49 30 36 15 / 0 60 70 0 El Morro........................ 47 27 33 12 / 0 70 80 0 Grants.......................... 49 30 36 16 / 0 40 70 0 Quemado......................... 51 31 36 18 / 0 30 70 0 Glenwood........................ 59 37 51 27 / 0 10 40 0 Chama........................... 38 24 31 8 / 5 90 80 5 Los Alamos...................... 45 30 35 19 / 0 50 70 10 Pecos........................... 47 30 35 20 / 0 50 70 20 Cerro/Questa.................... 41 26 31 12 / 0 60 70 20 Red River....................... 36 23 26 11 / 0 70 80 30 Angel Fire...................... 41 24 30 5 / 0 50 70 30 Taos............................ 42 25 34 9 / 0 50 70 20 Mora............................ 50 30 36 17 / 0 40 60 20 Espanola........................ 47 31 38 20 / 0 40 60 10 Santa Fe........................ 45 30 34 20 / 0 50 70 20 Santa Fe Airport................ 48 29 36 19 / 0 40 60 10 Albuquerque Foothills........... 51 34 40 24 / 0 30 60 5 Albuquerque Heights............. 53 34 43 25 / 0 20 50 5 Albuquerque Valley.............. 53 28 45 22 / 0 20 50 5 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 51 33 43 25 / 0 20 50 0 Los Lunas....................... 54 27 46 19 / 0 20 50 0 Rio Rancho...................... 51 33 42 24 / 0 20 60 0 Socorro......................... 57 36 49 27 / 0 5 20 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 46 31 36 22 / 0 40 80 5 Tijeras......................... 48 32 38 20 / 0 40 70 5 Moriarty/Estancia............... 50 28 39 20 / 0 20 50 5 Clines Corners.................. 47 31 36 21 / 0 20 50 10 Gran Quivira.................... 53 34 42 23 / 0 10 20 10 Carrizozo....................... 58 39 47 26 / 0 5 20 10 Ruidoso......................... 55 36 43 24 / 0 5 30 10 Capulin......................... 56 31 45 19 / 0 5 70 30 Raton........................... 55 29 46 20 / 0 5 50 30 Springer........................ 58 31 48 21 / 0 5 20 20 Las Vegas....................... 54 32 41 20 / 0 10 20 20 Clayton......................... 64 37 53 25 / 0 0 50 20 Roy............................. 61 34 48 24 / 0 5 30 20 Conchas......................... 67 39 55 29 / 0 0 20 20 Santa Rosa...................... 63 38 53 28 / 0 0 10 10 Tucumcari....................... 68 41 59 29 / 0 0 40 30 Clovis.......................... 66 37 60 29 / 0 0 20 40 Portales........................ 66 38 62 29 / 0 0 10 30 Fort Sumner..................... 66 37 59 29 / 0 0 10 20 Roswell......................... 69 38 66 33 / 0 0 10 10 Picacho......................... 65 42 54 30 / 0 0 10 10 Elk............................. 62 40 51 27 / 0 0 10 10 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Friday afternoon for the following zones... NMZ508-521-523>526-533>540. Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 PM MST Friday for the following zones... NMZ512>514. Winter Storm Warning from 8 PM this evening to 5 PM MST Friday for the following zones... NMZ510. Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 5 PM MST Friday for the following zones... NMZ502-503-511. && $$ 24