573 
FXUS63 KBIS 122352
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
552 PM CST Sat Jan 12 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 542 PM CST Sat Jan 12 2019

For the early evening update we extended the fog through the 
night across the south and kept a mention of flurries through the
evening. Otherwise no significant changes to the going forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 338 PM CST Sat Jan 12 2019

Fog through this evening and a milder Sunday highlight the short
term forecast.

Allowed the Dense Fog Advisory to expire at 21 UTC across far
southwest North Dakota as visibility has been slowly increasing.
However, did issue an SPS through 00 UTC for the potential for
visibility below one half mile at times.

Elsewhere for the rest of the evening and night, preferred the
GFSLamp which seems to have handled the fog and stratus best
through the day. Overall, expect the stratus to remain across the
south central, the James River Valley, and possibly the far
southwest through the night, with continued clearing northwest and
north central per GOESEast trends through 21 UTC. Continued
flurries are expected under the stratus. 

A surface ridge axis across central and eastern North and South
Dakota this afternoon will weaken and propagate east overnight,
with a weak surface trough and warmer airmass favored by the 12
UTC global suite for Sunday. Given the shallow snowpack west and
across most of the south central, favored the warmer edge of the
guidance suite for highs on Sunday, with highs in the mid 30s to
the mid 40s, warmest across the far southwest. 

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 338 PM CST Sat Jan 12 2019

A return of arctic air mid to late next week highlights the
extended forecast.

The 12 UTC global suite favors an initial cold front to propagate 
across the Northern Plains on Tuesday, with a reinforcing push of 
arctic air Thursday into Friday. Dangerous winds chills are 
possible for this time frame, and began to message this in the 
HWO. Otherwise, the forecast is generally dry for next week. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 542 PM CST Sat Jan 12 2019

Widespread stratus and fog across the forecast area to begin the
00Z forecast period. At this time low visibilities in Fog are 
limited to the southwest part of the state, including KDIK, with 
stratus elsewhere. We do have clear skies at KDIK at this time. 
Expect stratus to remain across southern TAF sites through Sunday 
morning. Stratus may sneak back into KISN again this evening. KISN
and possibly KMOT may see stratus clear overnight.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...PA
LONG TERM...PA
AVIATION...TWH