389 
FXUS63 KOAX 111142
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
542 AM CST Fri Jan 11 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 337 AM CST Fri Jan 11 2019

Accumulating snow still on track to move into the region later 
tonight. The only shift to this forecast is to linger accumulating 
snow a bit longer into Saturday across our eastern counties. 

An upper level trough axis extending from western Montana toward 
the Four Corners region will continue to deepen as it moves east 
and develops into a closed low across eastern Colorado this 
afternoon. Ahead of this system, moisture will continue to 
increase already evident by a fairly extensive cloud deck around 
4-5K feet extending from the southern Plains into central Iowa. 
Moisture is forecast to continue to deepen throughout the lower 
levels through the day. Precipitation is forecast to spread north
out of Kansas and into our far southern counties by this 
afternoon and evening. As air temperatures gradually fall this 
evening, a quick change over from rain to snow is likely with some
patchy freezing drizzle possible across northeast Nebraska and 
west-central Iowa. Our heaviest snowfall will be across our 
southeast where we have about 5 inches. This tapers quickly to 
about 2-3" along I-80 with a sharp cut off to a trace just north 
of this a county or two. The upper low moves across eastern Kansas
and into northwest Missouri on Saturday, putting the deformation 
axis across our southeastern counties so we have added a bit more
snow to this area as the 00Z ECMWF has slowed down just a bit. 
Will make no changes to the Winter Weather Advisory already in 
place as these will be the counties most impacted. As the snow 
falls, winds don't appear to be much more that 5 to 15 mph but 
could increase on Saturday morning to 15-20 mph so a little 
blowing, but nothing significant, is possible after day-break 
Saturday. 

Once snow moves out from west to east Saturday, colder 
temperatures will follow with lows Sunday morning in the upper 
teens to lower 20s. 

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 337 AM CST Fri Jan 11 2019

Warmer temperatures return to the area early next week as upper 
level heights build into the nation's mid-section. Nearly zonal flow 
is forecast through the remainder of the week with a trough forecast 
to dig into the Central Plains by late in the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 532 AM CST Fri Jan 11 2019

VFR conditions with ceilings falling from around 15,000 ft AGL to
around 4,000 ft AGL by late afternoon. After 22Z today, MVFR and 
eventually IFR conditions should begin to creep north out of 
Kansas, impacting areas mainly south of KOFK between 00Z and 18Z 
Saturday. The lower ceilings (around 1,000 ft AGL) will be 
accompanied by a band of light to moderate snow that will reduce 
visibilities to 1-3 sm at times. Snowfall should begin to taper 
off after 12 Saturday, helping visibilities recover to above 3 SM,
however the lower ceilings should linger through at least 18Z 
Saturday.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon CST 
     Saturday for NEZ051>053-065>068-078-088>093.

IA...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon CST 
     Saturday for IAZ069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kern
LONG TERM...Kern
AVIATION...Albright