297 
FXUS63 KFGF 101154
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
554 AM CST Thu Jan 10 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 327 AM CST Thu Jan 10 2019

Several weak waves move through the ridge aloft today. WAA in the
lower levels will promote at least a slight chance of flurries in
the forecast near the international border and LOW throughout the
day into tonight. While the mid levels look to remain dry, 
coldest temperatures within low level saturated column is forecast
to be around -10 C promoting ice crystal formation over 
supercooled droplets, thus flurries. Stratus will stick around 
the aforementioned areas with some passing higher clouds 
elsewhere. Temperatures will be seasonable, highs in the teens 
with a breeze out of the south-southeast. A cold front associated
with a parent clipper in southern Canada is forecast move into 
the region from the north tonight, although no precipitation is 
expected with this front.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 327 AM CST Thu Jan 10 2019

Friday-Friday night: Clipper expected to remain mainly north over 
southern Manitoba/western Ontario during these periods but light 
snow or flurries may still spread into our far northeast (mainly 
Lake of the Woods), with a dusting possible. Otherwise, expect near 
seasonal highs during the day Friday (teens to near 20). 

Saturday-Monday: Ridge axis transition over our CWA, with rising 
heights/moderation of air mass expected. Above normal temps and dry 
conditions expected. Southerly flow will at least supper highs in the 
20s/lows possibly in the teens. I couldn't rule out a few locations 
reaching freezing, but flow aloft does take on more of a 
northwesterly component and surface trough may not be quite as 
strong (less WAA than height rises might indicate). 

Monday night-Thursday: Northwest flow returns over the Northern 
Plains and there is strong support for a large upper low begins to 
slide south and deepen over Hudson bay placing arctic air back in 
reach. By Monday night an upper level shortwave trough is shown to 
round the western extent of this upper low and while not an ideal 
track for snow, would provide the necessary push for an arctic 
front to push south over our CWA. There is a stronger clustering of 
ensemble members and decent overlap in deterministic models showing 
colder temps returning by Wednesday, with seasonably cold temps once 
again settling in over our CWA (single digit to lower teens for 
highs/negative temps for lows). 

There is indication that as this front pushes south we could have a 
period of windy conditions, due to CAA surge and high pressure rises. 
It is far enough out to hold off on any major changes to wind/wind 
chill in forecast (timing/evolution question marks), but as we get 
closer to these periods and confidence increases we may need to 
start messaging wind/wind chill potential.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 545 AM CST Thu Jan 10 2019

Main change to the TAF forecast was to increase winds out of the 
south-southeast into the 10-20 kt range gusting to near 25 kt 
within the Red River Valley between 18-23Z. Otherwise, sites look 
to remain in VFR conditions with an eroding upper stratus deck 
today, however lingering near the international border into 
northwest Minnesota. Some light snow will be possible today into
tonight under this cloud deck near the Lake of the Woods area.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CJ
LONG TERM...DJR
AVIATION...CJ