209 
FXUS62 KFFC 041921
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
221 PM EST Fri Jan 4 2019

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday Night/...
While the post-dry slot portion and sfc occluded front is exiting 
the CWA to the east and north, some breaks in the wrap-around 
stratocu may tease momentary glimpses of the thing we call the 
sun for this afternoon. While the center of the upper cutoff low 
and associated lingering low level moisture continues to push 
across the MS/TN Valleys, cloud cover is unfortunately expected to
fill back in for this evening into overnight though NW flow 
behind this system will allow for a much more optimistic clearing 
trend for the weekend. In the mean time, the steepening lapse 
rates and continued moisture near the main cold core of the low 
will actually allow for some continued shower and isolated thunder
development in parts of north GA. There may even be a few shallow
cells that generate graupel or small hail. Late tonight the last 
of the precip should diminish in the far northeast. Keeping it all
showers late given thermal profile trend but could not rule out a
few flurries or snow grains right at the tail end though sfc 
temps stay above freezing in the mountains.

Temps mainly in the mid 50s to low 60s for Saturday with clearing 
skies and enhanced NW gradient winds, then even better Sunday 
with temps moderating into the mid to upper 60s as the flow 
becomes more zonal.

Baker


.LONG TERM /Sunday through Friday/...
No major forecast concerns during the long term period. 12Z model
guidance in relatively strong agreement with broad upper ridging 
over the eastern CONUS transitioning to southwest flow and a broad
upper trough over the northern/central CONUS latitudes on Monday,
followed by strong NW flow aloft and subsidence Tues thru Thurs. 
There could be some light rain Monday night associated with warm 
advection ahead of front but other than that, the entire forecast 
will be dry. 

Both max and min temperatures through Wednesday will be 10 to 15 
degrees above normal, possibly higher before the next front arrives 
on Tues night or Wednesday. Even after that, temps will remain 
around 5 degrees above normal.

SNELSON

PREV LONG TERM DISCUSSION... /Issued 332 AM EST Fri Jan 4 2019/ 

The long term begins with a ridge of high pressure building over the 
central U.S. This will bring dry and more stable air into the CWA 
for a few days. Another weak but fast moving system will move across 
the CWA late Monday and Monday night. The system will weaken as it 
moves across the CWA, however it will have enough moisture for 
another chance of showers. After Monday night, a broad trough will 
dominate the eastern half of the nation with the axis just off the 
east coast. This puts the CWA in a west northwest flow bringing dry 
and stable conditions for the remainder of the long term. 
Temperatures will be at or just above normal through the long term.

17


&&

.AVIATION... 
18Z Update... 

While the main precip has pushed east of the taf sites, there 
could be some lingering VCSH especially near the northern sites 
this afternoon. Some initial LIFR cigs in the north should lift to
MVFR in the next few hours with a possible VFR break before 
lowering back into MVFR/IFR range overnight for most sites. Cigs 
should at least scatter out pretty quickly Saturday after 12/15z. 
Winds becoming SW near 10 kts gusting 16 kts into this evening, 
then shift more west to NW near 12 kts gusting 20 kts into 
Saturday.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium on evening cig trend.
High on all else.

Baker

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          41  57  39  66 /  20   5   0   0 
Atlanta         41  56  41  65 /  10   0   0   0 
Blairsville     37  51  35  63 /  40  10   0   0 
Cartersville    40  55  37  63 /  20   0   0   0 
Columbus        43  60  42  68 /  10   5   0   0 
Gainesville     40  54  39  64 /  20   5   0   0 
Macon           44  60  40  68 /  10   5   0   0 
Rome            39  56  36  63 /  20   0   0   0 
Peachtree City  41  57  40  67 /  10   0   0   0 
Vidalia         45  61  42  67 /  20   5   0   0 

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Baker
LONG TERM....SNELSON
AVIATION...Baker