940 
FXUS63 KMPX 030030
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
630 PM CST Wed Jan 2 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 625 PM CST Wed Jan 2 2019

Updated to include 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 317 PM CST Wed Jan 2 2019

Water vapor imagery and mosaic radar showing upper trough moving 
through eastern MN at this time. We will likely see some 
flurries/light snow showers continue until it passes to the east 
this evening. Clouds are expected to thin or erode from the west 
as well, as surface trough/warm front makes progress to the east. 
More Pacific type airmass will move east tonight and Thursday 
ushering in the warming trend. Lows tonight should range generally
in the teens. Highs Thursday afternoon, mainly above the thawing 
point - 35 to 40.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 317 PM CST Wed Jan 2 2019

Mild weather will continue through the long term with record highs 
possible Friday and Saturday at Minneapolis/St. Paul and Eau 
Claire. In the snow parched areas of southern/eastern MN into 
western WI, there will be better opportunity for deeper mixing. 
Despite the light winds, full sun and 925 mb temps of +5 to +6C by
Saturday should allow these areas to rise into the mid or upper 
40s. Records include 41 Friday and 47 Saturday at MSP, and 44 
Friday and 43 Saturday at Eau Claire. Trended the forecast toward 
MOS, which is impressively forecasting record temperatures. A 
backdoor cold front will push through Saturday night and should 
knock temps back a bit for Sunday. 

The next system to watch will move through early next week. The
split flow pattern will persist, and two pieces of energy will 
exist - one to the northwest and one just to our southeast. As 
they encounter Gulf moisture Monday, precip will begin to develop 
but probably not until it would impact eastern MN into WI. 

Amplified pattern follows for Tuesday into Wednesday with a trough 
to the east and a ridge to the west. This should bring a return to
tranquil conditions for much of the rest of the week. As the 
ridge shifts east, it could get quite mild again. ECMWF brings the
560 dm thickness contour into the southwest corner of MN and 850 
mb temps nearing +12C Wednesday across the south. Talk about a 
very impressive thermal profile for the coldest time of the year. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 625 PM CST Wed Jan 2 2019

A swath of low stratus in MVFR range north of I-90 will continue
to slide east through this evening, in advance of an approaching
warm front. As the warm front slides east overnight through
daybreak, the low clouds will give way to only FEW-SCT high cirrus
coverage from the pre-dawn hours through Thursday evening. No
precipitation expected throughout. Winds will remain generally
southwest in the 5-10 kt range.

KMSP...Ceilings to remain in the 2-3 kft range through late
evening then VFR conditions expected thereafter. 

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Fri...VFR. Wind SW 5-10 kts. 
Sat...VFR. Wind W 5-10 kts.
Sun...MVFR ceilings possible. Wind E 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...JPC