171 
FXUS63 KFSD 280945
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
345 AM CST Fri Dec 28 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 345 AM CST Fri Dec 28 2018

Cyclonic flow around low over western Wisconsin resulting in gusty 
northwest winds.  Isentropic lift gradually wanes through the day, 
but could still see some light snow/flurries lingering through the 
day as atmospheric column cools and dendritic layer develops near the 
surface.  

Early this morning, model soundings suggest saturation issues aloft, 
and with surface observations in northwest Iowa suggesting mixed 
precipitation, elected to issue a winter weather advisory for 
remaining counties in the east.  Have also extended the advisory in 
time a few hours for gusty winds and blowing snow concerns.  

With cold air advection through the day, temperatures will fall 
throughout the day.  Expect temperatures to be in the single digits 
above zero by early afternoon, but with strong north winds remaining 
through the afternoon hours, could see wind chills approach advisory 
levels along the highway 14 corridor and along the Buffalo Ridge in 
southwest Minnesota.

Tonight, temperatures at 925 hpa fall into the upper teens below 
zero leading to the coldest night across the region so far this 
season.  Clearing skies and decreasing winds will allow for decent 
radiative conditions across the fresh snowpack. With that said, 
southwesterly winds kick in after 06Z west of I-29 drawing warmer 
air into the region. 

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 345 AM CST Fri Dec 28 2018

Should see a warming trend through the weekend ahead of the next 
system arriving on New Years eve.  Ahead of the system, dendritic 
layer appears to suffer saturation issues, but growing saturation 
near the surface may lead to some freezing drizzle across the area. 
As the robust lift moves into the region, expect snow to develop. 
Snow should be fairly light, generally totaling around an inch or 
less.  Heaviest snowfall appears to be along the highway 14 corridor 
closer to the mid-level wave.

Behind the departing wave, temperatures plummet back into the deep 
freeze and remain there for the first few days of 2019.  Expect to 
see some warming late next week as a chinook type pattern develops, 
though mainly dry conditions look to prevail outside of New Years 
Eve.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1155 PM CST Thu Dec 27 2018

Widespread MVFR conditions will persist through much of Friday,
but combination of falling and blowing snow will continue to
create IFR and below visibility through early morning. Wind gusts
30 to 40 knots can be expected through the early afternoon, with
gradual loss of ceilings from the north and decrease in winds
during the afternoon.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for SDZ053>056-
     058>071.

     Winter Storm Warning until noon CST today for SDZ038>040.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for 
     SDZ050-052-057.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for MNZ080-081-089-
     090-097-098.

     Winter Storm Warning until noon CST today for MNZ071-072.

IA...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for IAZ001>003-
     012>014-020>022-031-032.

NE...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for NEZ013-014.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM...BT
AVIATION...Chapman