343 
FXUS65 KVEF 231103
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
303 AM PST Fri Nov 23 2018

.SYNOPSIS..Dry conditions will return Friday for most areas, with
the exception of the high Sierra. Northerly winds will spread 
across the region Saturday with a passing cold front. Temperatures
will drop a few degrees Sunday then gradually warm through next 
week. Rain and snow chances will creep back into the area during 
the latter part of next week. 
&&

.SHORT TERM...today through Sunday

Quiet conditions around the region this morning. The mentionable 
weather is a deck of high clouds is slowly drifting southward across 
the Great Basin in response to a weak disturbance moving east across 
southern Idaho. Behind this system, a moist westerly flow aloft is 
being directed into northern California. While most, if not all, of 
the precip associated with the moist flow will stay north and west 
of the area, scattered snow showers will be possible along the crest 
of the Sierra through tonight. Elsewhere, dry conditions and periods 
of cloud cover is expected today. Another shortwave trough will dive 
across the PacNW and into Intermountain west on Saturday. As it 
does, a dry cold front will track south across the Great Basin 
bringing north winds back to the area on Saturday. Breezy north winds,
with gusts around 20-30 MPH, should subside by early Sunday. Light
winds are expected in most areas Sunday, except down the Colorado
River valley where north winds will linger. High clouds will 
invade the region again on Sunday as weak shortwave digs beneath 
an upper ridge nosing into the west coast. Temperatures will 
remain fairly steady through Saturday and drop a few degrees on 
Sunday after the frontal passage.

.LONG TERM...Monday through Friday.

The medium range models indicate the first half of next week will 
keep generally benign weather over most of the forecast area before 
a broad Pacific System slides inland bringing the chance for 
extensive coverage of precipitation to much of the western states. A 
ridge over the region Monday will begin to flatten and push off to 
the east as a strong shortwave over the Eastern Pacific moves into 
central/northern California Tuesday which could bring some light 
snow spilling over our southern Sierra zone along with gusty winds 
over the ridges. A brief induced ridge then moves over the region 
Wednesday ahead of a broad trough which is forecast to bring 
considerable moisture into California and the western states by 
Thursday. A progressive pattern will allow additional energy and 
moisture upstream to move inland going into next weekend. Confidence 
is moderate in the trough moving inland Thursday looking at the 
operational GFS and ECMWF along with the blended models though it is 
low in the details this far out...especially potential precipitation 
amounts. But anyone with weather sensitive plans toward the end of 
next week will want to keep an eye on updated forecasts. 
Temperatures will trend downward toward the end of the week, but the 
air mass is not forecast to be particularly cold with the 
system Thursday.
&&

.AVIATION...For McCarran...Light winds between 4-8 knots will 
follow typical wind patterns today and continue through the morning 
Saturday. Ceilings will steadily drop throughout the day with CIGs 
bottoming out around 10 kft. Scattered and broken cloud cover 
expected to stay above 15 kft.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast 
California...Few to scattered clouds with ceilings between 7-10 kft 
and scattered to broken clouds above 15 kft expected today. Winds 
will generally follow diurnal patterns with wind speeds between 5-15 
knots this afternoon. Scattered showers over the Sierra may cause 
mountain obscuration through the evening. 
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...Boothe
LONG TERM.............Adair

For more forecast information...see us on our webpage:

http://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter