365 
FXUS62 KFFC 071946
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
246 PM EST Wed Nov 7 2018



.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Thursday Night/...

"Weak" wave pushing through the broad west/southwest upper flow 
proving to be a bit stouter than expected today. Managed to tap 
enough instability for a few strong thunderstorms as it moved out of 
the lower/mid Mississippi Valley today, however a general weakening 
trend has been evident this afternoon as the system moves east into 
the region where instability is a bit more limited. Still, we will 
see isolated thunder along the I-20 corridor into the early evening 
with scattered, more vigorous convection across our central Georgia 
zones. Still think chances for severe thunderstorms remain marginal 
at best, and confined to the far south. Persistent southwesterly 
upper flow over top of the cool easterly low-level flow keeps the 
region cloudy, cool and damp through the remainder of the short-term 
forecast period.


20


.LONG TERM /Friday through Wednesday/...

Likely to categorical pops still look okay for Friday with the
short wave approaching from the west and the wedge holding.
Instability remains marginal for much of the area but will
continue with a mention of thunder across the area south of
Columbus to Macon. Pops diminishing overnight Friday and
both GFS and ECMWF agree on a dry weekend. However moisture will
be moving back rapidly on Sunday night as the next short wave
develops in the western Gulf. We can expect a wet period through
Tuesday night...with the ECMWF a bit slower on drying us out.  
However Wednesday looks dry on both models. In general there have
been no big changes made to the forecast. The previous discussion
is included below.


41


&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 356 AM EST Wed Nov 7 2018/ 

.LONG TERM /Thursday Night through Tuesday/... The state will 
remain in the midst of a damp weather pattern at the onset of the 
long-term forecast period. From Thursday night into early Friday, 
a wedge will remain in place at the surface prior to the arrival 
of a strong cold front during the later Friday with persistent 
shower chances amidst moist southwest flow aloft. By Friday 
afternoon, the incoming cold front will scour out the wedge and 
bring widespread rainfall. The threat for thunderstorms appears 
very low for most locations given low instability courtesy the 
lingering wedge with the chance for any thunder relegated to 
central Georgia where slight instability may edge northward. The 
front will clear the area from northwest to southeast through 
Friday night bringing much colder air by Saturday morning with 
sub-freezing temperatures possible across portions of far north 
Georgia. 

Cool and dry weather will persist through the majority of the 
weekend as the center of the surface high transitions from the Ohio 
Valley into the mid-Atlantic. Sunday morning, more widespread 
freezing temperatures appear likely across portions of north Georgia 
under clear skies and relatively light winds.

The dry weather will be short-lived with moisture quickly surging 
back northward Sunday night as southwest flow aloft returns and a 
surface low develops over the Gulf of Mexico. There are model 
discrepancies on the placement of the developing surface low as it 
moves northeastward with the GFS favoring a more southeasterly track 
and the ECMWF a track northwest of the area. Either way, rain 
chances will increase markedly into the day Monday. The GFS solution 
would provide a slight potential for a brief rain/snow mix in the 
higher elevations early Tuesday, but at this point temperatures 
appear border line and confidence is low with no significant 
impact expected. While the GFS clears the front east of the area 
Tuesday night with much colder air surging into the state by 
Wednesday morning, the ECMWF is delayed until Wednesday. This 
would set the stage for freezing low temperatures across most of 
the area midweek, and highs would likely remain in the 40s for 
much of north Georgia.

RW

AVIATION...
18Z Update...

Area of showers and thunderstorms moving west across Alabama should 
continue to weaken some as it moves into the forecast area. However, 
late this afternoon into this evening, isolated thunderstorms are
possible across the northern TAF sites with scattered thunder 
possible at the southern sites. Chances appear to be a bit low for
inclusion in the northern TAFs at this time. MVFR cigs have been 
spotty so far today, but will become more consistent and 
widespread as we move into the late afternoon and into the 
evening. IFR conditions are expected to develop by 06Z across the 
south and between 08Z-10Z across the north, continuing through at 
least 14-16Z tomorrow. East winds 6kts or less outside of 
convection. 

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update... 

Medium all elements, except high for winds.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          54  63  50  56 /  60  50  50  60 
Atlanta         56  64  54  60 /  60  50  50  70 
Blairsville     48  59  47  54 /  40  50  60  80 
Cartersville    52  64  52  59 /  50  60  60  80 
Columbus        62  70  59  70 /  70  60  40  60 
Gainesville     53  62  50  56 /  50  50  60  70 
Macon           60  67  57  69 /  80  60  40  60 
Rome            51  64  52  59 /  40  60  70  90 
Peachtree City  56  65  55  61 /  60  50  40  70 
Vidalia         66  72  60  74 /  70  60  40  40 

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...20