National Weather Service Raw Text Product

880 
FXUS66 KPQR 302214
AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Portland OR 
314 PM PDT Tue Oct 30 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Rain returns tonight through Wednesday afternoon. Onshore
flow will continue showers, mostly for the higher terrain, Wednesday
evening through Thursday morning. A cold front will continue wet
weather Friday with another front expected Saturday night and Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...This afternoon through Friday...A warm front will bring
widespread rain to the region this evening as snow levels rise above
the Cascade passes. Radar this afternoon shows rain currently about
30 miles off the coast with some isolated light showers out in front
of the main surge. Moisture is impressive with this system with
modeled precipitable water values around 1.25 inches. Expect rainfall
totals in the Willamette Valley to range between 0.25 and 0.75 inch
from this evening through Wednesday afternoon with 0.75 to 1.5 inches
of rain for the coast, coastal mountains and the Cascades. Snow
levels will quickly rise tonight to around 9000 ft by Wednesday
morning, so the Cascades will mostly see rain.

The front moves east of the Cascades Wednesday afternoon, but moist
onshore flow will continue showers through Thursday morning. The
showers will become more orographic and favor the higher terrain
starting Wednesday evening. Showers in the interior valleys will
decrease in frequency Wednesday evening, but not stop completely.
Although rain across the interior lowlands will likely be light by
then, anyone heading out in the late afternoon or evening on
Halloween may want to check the radar before leaving. An additional
0.10 to 0.25 inch of rain is possible in the interior valleys from
Wednesday evening through Thursday morning with another 0.5 to 0.75
inch expected for the higher terrain. Showers will become less
numerous for most areas Thursday, but expect only interior Lane
County to remain completely dry.

Heavier and more persistent rain will move in again along the north
coast Friday morning as another moist front approaches. Rain will
spread east and south through Friday morning, and persist through the
afternoon. The rain may be heavy at times Friday morning through
early Friday afternoon. Bowen

.LONG TERM...Friday night through Monday. Steady rain transitions to
showers Friday night behind the front. But another organized system
pushes into the region late Saturday and into Sunday for more rain.
Models diverge a bit regarding where the focus of the moisture is -
over the local area or a bit farther north - but there appears to be
plenty of available moisture overall. Continued to use a blend of
models for this system due to uncertainty. Rain should turn to
showers again by Sunday evening. Some models are indicating another
system moving through Monday, but there's even more disagreement with
them system, so confidence in Monday's forecast is low at this point.
Bowen

&&

.AVIATION...Morning fog and low stratus has been very slow to
burn off over the interior lowlands today. IFR and low MVFR cigs
continue to impact many sites as of 3 PM, but visible satellite
shows the clouds steadily breaking up now. Most of the TAF sites
should be VFR by 22Z-23Z. Meanwhile, high clouds will be
continuing to increase ahead of the next approaching frontal
boundary. Light rain will begin to spread into the coast by early
this evening, then spread over most of the interior by late
evening. Cigs will be steadily lowering tonight, with MVFR 
developing across the region from NW to SE in the 03Z-09Z 
window. There should be quite a bit of IFR around by daybreak 
Wed, which may continue through much of the morning.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...Cigs finally lift to VFR by around 22Z. Mid
and high clouds will continue to increase ahead of an approaching
front, but VFR should prevail through much of the evening. Light
rain will spread in by mid-evening, then increase overnight.
Expect MVFR cigs by around 06Z, with potential for some IFR late
tonight and Wed morning. Pyle

&&

.MARINE...The next frontal system will move through the waters
tonight, then push onshore early Wed morning. Southerly winds
will pick up this evening and continue into the overnight period.
Some of the high-res models are showing some low-end gale force
gusts over PZZ250/PZZ270, mainly north of Tillamook, so will 
leave the existing Gale Warning in place. A small craft advisory
is in effect for PZZ255/PZZ275, where the winds will not be as
strong. Seas around 8 to 9 ft through this afternoon should push
back into the 10 to 11 ft range over the northern waters tonight 
where the winds are strongest.

There will be a relative lull in the weather through most of the
day Wed and Thu as weak high pressure moves over the waters.
Another front is expected Thu night into Fri, which may bring
another round of borderline gale force southerly winds. This
system will likely push seas back into the low teens again. Yet
another front is expected over the weekend. The current models
are suggesting this system will arrive Sat night into Sun
morning. Pyle

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...Gale Warning until 5 AM PDT Wednesday for Coastal Waters from 
     Cape Shoalwater WA to Cascade Head OR out 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory for winds from 6 PM this evening to 5 AM 
     PDT Wednesday for Coastal Waters from Cascade Head OR to 
     Florence OR out 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory for Rough Columbia River Bar from 7 PM 
     this evening to midnight PDT tonight.

     Small Craft Advisory for Rough Columbia River Bar from 9 PM 
     Wednesday to 1 AM PDT Thursday.

&&

$$

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This discussion is for Northwest Oregon and Southwest Washington 
from the Cascade crest to 60 nautical miles offshore. This area is