089 
FXUS63 KEAX 191104
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
604 AM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 310 AM CDT FRI OCT 19 2018

Primary forecast focus is on light rain and drizzle in southern 
Missouri Today.

This morning, a surface trough remains extended from western Ontario 
into the Dakotas and Nebraska. Ahead of this boundary, southwesterly 
winds ushered in a beautiful fall day across the region, along with 
increasing mid-level moisture. Combined with modest 310K isentropic 
ascent ahead, scattered showers have been ongoing from portions of 
Oklahoma, Kansas, and across the Ozark Plateau, last evening and 
early this morning. Overall, this activity is expected to persist, 
along with some pre-frontal drizzle and/or showers from Nebraska 
into eastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri through the morning. 
Temperatures will be highly dependent on influence from cloud cover. 
Current thoughts are temperatures will be held down by stratus, 
but with southwest flow persisting into the afternoon, we should 
see highs in the upper 50s and lower 60s. Lingering precipitation 
chances in southern and central Missouri will taper off through 
the early afternoon.

For the Weekend, with the frontal boundary arriving overnight into 
Saturday, expect a pleasant weekend, with temperatures in the 50s
to lower 60s for highs, with Sunday being a touch cooler. 
Saturday will be breezy, with north and northwest winds increasing
in the afternoon, especially across northeastern Missouri into 
Iowa and Illinois. 

Expect a fall-like warm up for the start of the work week, highs in 
the Mid 60s on Monday, before short wave ridging develops along the 
western high plains, with a weak surface front resulting in slightly 
cooler temperatures Tuesday. Rain chances look to return midweek, 
with rain chances continuing into Thursday, primarily building from 
the southwest in response to another 500mb short wave.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 602 AM CDT FRI OCT 19 2018

Mid to low clouds are expected to continue to evolve through the
morning across the region. Expect a drop to MVFR through mid to
late morning, for a few hours, before climbing back to VFR through
the mid afternoon. Southwest winds will continue to shift to the
west, increasing in the afternoon, before shifting farther to the
northwest overnight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Kurtz
Aviation...Kurtz