National Weather Service Raw Text Product

688 
FXUS65 KVEF 152125
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
225 PM PDT Mon Oct 15 2018

.SYNOPSIS...The strong, gusty north winds will weaken this 
evening. Some north breezes will persist on Tuesday, especially 
within the lower Colorado River Valley and adjacent eastern San 
Bernardino County. Gradually moderating temperatures are expected 
the rest of the week with isolated showers possible over parts of 
Mohave County Tuesday and Wednesday. Another weak area of low 
pressure could produce another round of showers this weekend.
&& 

.SHORT TERM...through Thursday night.

Temperatures generally running 5-10 degrees cooler versus yesterday 
across parts of the southern Great Basin and Mojave Desert following 
the cold frontal passage. The other impact from the cold front has 
been the gusty north winds. Seen numerous reports of wind gusts in 
excess of 40 mph from Cottonwood Cove south to Lake Havasu City. 
Surface pressure gradient has begun to decrease so will allow the 
advisory to run its course through 8 pm this evening. Less support 
for northerly winds Tuesday but as usual breezes will continue in 
the favored Colorado River Valley from Lake Mohave south to Lake 
Havasu. 

A closed upper low is the process of developing near Yuma this 
evening. Models then rotate the upper low back northward across 
Arizona Tuesday and Wednesday. Low finally weakens and shift east 
across southern Utah Thursday leaving a weak positive tilt trough 
hanging back across the region. Model QPF fields continue to support 
a slight chance of showers across Mohave County Tuesday and 
Wednesday as the low pivots northward through Arizona.   

.LONG TERM...Friday through Monday.

The key difference in the long range guidance tonight vs this time 
yesterday is subtle differences in the evolution of the closed low 
Friday and into the weekend. A more progressive shortwave out of 
Canada will serve to cut off the low center from the overall flow 
pattern and trap it under a developing ridge axis over the western 
CONUS by the weekend. As the remnant low shifts westward towards 
southern California and eventually off-shore, it should again pull 
moisture northward and into the region Saturday night and Sunday. 
Went ahead and raised PoPs for this time frame in collaboration with 
neighbors. QPF values still do not look too substantial at this 
point per WPC guidance.

Temperature-wise, gradual warming through the week is expected, with 
highs in the Las Vegas Valley reaching the low 80s by the weekend. 
Looking at the CPC 8-14 day temperature outlook, a fairly strong 
signal for above average temperatures looks to be on the horizon as 
the next stout upper low approaches the Pacific Northwest early next 
week.   
&&

.AVIATION...For McCarran...Gusty north to northeast winds are 
expected to continue through much of today with gusts to 30 kts. 
Gusts will gradually decrease this evening and become more 
intermittent overnight. Similar north winds are expected tomorrow 
with gusts to 20-25 kts through the afternoon. SKC skies expected 
through much of the period with some FEW aoa 12 kft tomorrow 
morning. 

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast 
California...Gusty north to northeast winds are expected to continue 
through much of today with gusts to 30-40 kts, with the strongest 
winds down the Colorado River Valley. Gusts will gradually decrease 
this evening and become more intermittent overnight at much of the 
TAF sites, however elevated winds are expected to continue down the 
Colorado River Valley through tomorrow. Similar north winds are 
expected tomorrow with gusts to 20-30 kts through the afternoon. VFR 
conditions expected through the forecast period.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Pierce
AVIATION...Kryston
LONG TERM...TB3

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