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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDIND Product Timestamp: 2018-10-15 18:53 UTC
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142 FXUS63 KIND 151853 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 253 PM EDT Mon Oct 15 2018 .UPDATE... The SYNOPSIS, NEAR TERM, and SHORT TERM sections have been updated below. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 253 PM EDT Mon Oct 15 2018 Below normal temperatures will continue into next week across central Indiana. Other than chances for rain Friday with a front moving through, most areas will remain dry into next week. && .NEAR TERM...(Rest of This Afternoon and Tonight) Issued at 253 PM EDT Mon Oct 15 2018 Rain had pushed off to the southeast this afternoon. However, extensive cloud cover continued across the forecast area. Both low level clouds and high level clouds were moving across. The lower level clouds should gradually clear out from northwest to southeast this afternoon and evening. However, it looks like high clouds will move through from time to time. Will keep skies partly cloudy this evening, then allow for mostly clear skies overnight. Will have to keep watch though as some model data is showing high clouds increasing again overnight. Winds will diminish overnight as well. The clearing skies and lighter winds will allow temperatures to fall into the lower and middle 30s across the entire area. Thus it looks like 32 degrees or below is likely across the northern 2/3 of the area. Will upgrade to a Freeze Warning there. Frost is still likely elsewhere, so will continue the Frost Advisory. As mentioned above, there is some concern that cirrus may move in and this might help keep temperatures up a bit. Thus didn't go as cold as some models and went 32 or 31 most locations in the warning area. && .SHORT TERM...(Tuesday through Thursday) Issued at 253 PM EDT Mon Oct 15 2018 Models are close enough that the model blend initialization was accepted for most items. Quiet weather can be expected throughout the short term. A cold front will move through on Tuesday night, but the front will have no moisture to work with. Thus no precipitation is expected. Otherwise high pressure will control the weather across the area. With the dry atmosphere in place, mostly clear skies will be the rule through most of the short term. Some lake enhanced clouds may clip the northeastern forecast area on Wednesday with the reinforcing shot of cold air behind the front. Below normal temperatures will persist through the short term with northwesterly flow dominating aloft. && .LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/... Issued at 245 AM EDT Mon Oct 15 2018 Mainly Dry and cool weather is expected this period...except for Friday. ECMWF shows moderate ridging in place aloft over Indiana on Thursday as Surface High pressure firmly in place over the Ohio Valley. This should lead to a continuation of the dry weather through the middle of the week. On Friday the ECMWF suggests a short wave and associated cold front pushing toward the Ohio Valley from the northern plains. Strong Dynamics and decent moisture should be able to generate...at minimum...light precip amounts on Friday and Friday night as these features pass. Have kept forecast builder pops at those spots. The ECMWF then suggests troughing along along with broad cyclonic flow in place across the area on Saturday. For now have kept Saturday dry as a lack of moisture will cause problems for precip development. Caveat here is that cyclonic flow and upper flow could lead to some instability showers. Stay Tuned. High pressure and ridging aloft arrives on Sunday. Trended toward dry weather at that time. && .AVIATION /Discussion for the 15/18Z TAF Issuance/... Issued at 134 PM EDT Mon Oct 15 2018 MVFR conditions will linger through most of the afternoon, then clouds will scatter out with a return to VFR conditions. The VFR conditions will then prevail through the end of the period as high pressure strengthens over the region. Meanwhile, winds will be northwesterly through tomorrow morning when they back to the southwest. Winds will be strong this afternoon with sustained speeds of 12 to 16 kts and gusts up to 24 kts. After that, expect sustained speeds of 6 to 11 kts with backing to the southwest tomorrow morning. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning from 5 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for INZ021-028>031- 035>049-051>057. Frost Advisory from 5 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for INZ060>065-067>072. && $$ SYNOPSIS...50 NEAR TERM...50 SHORT TERM...50 LONG TERM....Puma AVIATION...TDUD