667 
FXUS65 KVEF 140919
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
220 AM PDT Sun Oct 14 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Gusty north winds and cooler temperatures will be 
ushered in by a cold front spreading across the region. Gusty winds 
will persist Monday and Tuesday. The first freeze of the season will 
occur in parts of the Owens Valley and southern Great Basin Monday 
morning. Gradually moderating temperatures are expected the 
second half of the coming week.
&&

.SHORT TERM...through Monday night.

Much quieter conditions this morning than 24 hours ago, with only a 
couple very light and isolated showers lingering over eastern Mohave 
county. Meanwhile, north winds are beginning to push southward across 
southern Nevada, with a few gusts of 20-30 mph already noted near 
the Nevada Test Site. Expect these winds to spread southward during 
the morning hours, with increasingly gusty conditions expected after 
daybreak, especially along a swath from eastern Lincoln county 
southward to eastern San Bernardino county and along the Colorado 
River Valley.  

These winds will continue to increase through the afternoon and 
evening hours, and last into Monday afternoon before gradually 
weakening Monday night.  A few gusts of 45-50 mph will be possible 
in especially exposed or wind prone locations along the Colorado 
River Valley, such as Laughlin. There is also some potential for 
reverse downslope winds on the west side of the Spring Mountains, 
which could impact eastern sections of the Pahrump Valley late 
Sunday night and Monday.  Overall, the winds advisory issued by the 
day shift looks good and I made no changes to the product. 

The other big story will be the incoming chill to the air. In fact, 
the coolest air of the season so far will be ushered in behind a 
strong cold front today, with high temps dropping 10-15 degrees from 
Saturdays values.  This airmass will also set the stage for the 
first freeze of the season across much of our northern zones, and 
parts of the Owens Valley near Bishop. Breezy north winds may 
moderate the freeze potential slightly in a few areas, but it will 
still be very close to freezing and the current freeze warning 
remains in effect. 

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Sunday.

Models continue to advertise the closed low over the southwest US to 
meander around from the Colorado River Valley to central Arizona, 
and back up into Utah throughout the week. It does appear that 
GFS/ECMWF/Canadian all bring some elevated moisture in from the east 
on Tuesday, possibly enough to produce some rain for mostly Mohave 
county but possibly as far west as the Colorado River Valley. 
However, due to a lack of any forcing other than meager lifting 
associated with the low, do not expect any of showers that develop 
to be significant. QPF values should remain minimal as a result. 

Other than that, the low should bring at least some cloud cover to 
the eastern third of the CWA through much of the week. Temperatures 
will slowly warm through the week reaching the low 80s for the 
valley by the weekend. The next best shot at PoPs after Tue/Wed 
looks like Saturday/Sunday as moisture caught within the low swings 
back west and over southern Nevada and southern California.  

&&

.AVIATION...For McCarran...Increasing north winds are expected this 
morning, with gusts of 20-30 knots expected by the afternoon. These 
north winds will linger overnight and continue into Monday. Skies 
through the period will be mostly clear. 

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast 
California...Increasing north winds expected across the region today 
which will persist into Monday.  Strongest winds will be along the 
Colorado River valley impacting TAF sites such as KIFP and KEED with 
gusts to 30-40 knots possible. Skies through the period will be 
mostly clear. 

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...Outler
LONG TERM...TB3

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