500 
FXUS63 KOAX 101221
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
721 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

The main forecast concerns in the short term are possible freezing
temperatures tonight and potential for light snow, or at least a
light snow/light rain mix, for parts of the area late Thursday
night into Friday morning. 

Combination of water vapor satellite imagery and recent RUC model
500 mb height initializations showed a closed low back over
northwest UT and a shortwave trough ejecting northeast from parts
of western NE into SD. We were still in strong south/southwest
flow with the trough axis to our west. IR imagery showed much of
the high level moisture had moved to our east, leaving mostly 
just stratus or stratocumulus in our area. Isentropically, we are 
in downglide from about 295 to 305K. Most short range model 
guidance suggests clouds will linger much of the area this 
morning, with some lingering light rain or drizzle. Highest chance
of any measurable rain will be across the northwest part of 
northeast NE. Temperatures should remain cool today, with highs 
mostly in the 40s - but upper 40s and lower 50s closer to the KS 
and MO borders. Expect northwest winds 15 to 25 mph with some 
higher gusts. 

Tonight, expect clouds and winds to diminish with lows in the 30s.
Some lows could even drop below 30 in our far northwest zones.
Will issue a freeze watch where we think it will get to 32 or less
for tonight and let the day shift evaluate further. Winds may stay
up enough to limit frost formation, but did mention at least
patchy frost most locations with areas of frost for much of the 
freeze watch area.

Friday, finally we expect some much needed sunshine. But it will
remain cool with highs in the 40s north and upper 40s/lower 50s
south. The next mid/upper level system of concern should move into
the area from the west Thursday night. At the surface, we will
still be somewhat under the influence of high pressure early on.
This will make hourly temperatures difficult for Thursday night.
We expect mainly a rain event, or a rain/snow mix, but no
accumulations of snow are expected at this time. There are some
fairly big differences in the forecast soundings, especially in
regards to low level temperatures. The 00Z run of the GFS was 
warmer than the NAM. Light rain could linger into at least early
afternoon for Friday. Expect highs only in the 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

At the start of this period, we will be in northwest mid level
flow with a ridge located from off the coast of the Pacific NW up
into eastern AK. One shortwave trough will be to our east, with
another off to the northwest. That will gradually strengthen and
move toward our area during the weekend. The mid level ridge 
mentioned earlier will tend to remain in place into at least 
Tuesday, keeping a cool flow of air into the northern Plains. 
Will have some mention of possible precipitation for parts of the 
area from Saturday night into Sunday. 

Highs through the long term period will remain much below normal,
in the 40s or 50s. Normal highs are in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 714 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

Mostly MVFR conditions today with increasing northwest winds. A
few showers in the area at KOMA/KLNK with a weakening
frontogenetic band and a rain/snow mix will try to move toward 
KOFK with the deformation band. Northwest winds 10 to 20kts with
gusts to 30kts. Ceilings should improve to VFR 00-07Z. 

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Thursday morning for 
     NEZ011-012-015>018-030>033-042>044-050-051-065-066-078-088-
     089.

IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Miller
LONG TERM...Miller
AVIATION...Zapotocny