National Weather Service Raw Text Product

164 
FXUS63 KTOP 100904
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
404 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 404 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

Upper trough axis was pushing northeast across Kansas this morning 
with deeper moisture and more persistent precipitation well to 
the east and north. Cold front was into eastern Kansas with weak 
showers just head of it, with more isolated showers and drizzle 
reported in the post-frontal air in northeast and north-central 
Kansas. Gusty northwest winds were accompanying temperatures in 
the low to mid 30s in northwest Kansas. 

Low levels remain rather saturated over mainly northern and western 
areas behind the cold front this morning and could spread patchy 
drizzle into north-central Kansas. Colder and drier air pushes 
across the area through the day with strong mid-level subsidence 
developing by mid-day. Temperatures are not expected to rise much 
despite afternoon clearing with highs mainly in the 50s. Trends in 
winds, clouds, and thus temperatures are the main challenges 
tonight. The upper wave over Utah this morning brings some high 
clouds across northern Kansas this evening but mainly clear skies 
expected for most of tonight as a surface ridge builds southeast 
into the state. The pressure gradient slowly relaxes but 925 mb
windS remain in the 20-25 knot range through the night. Guidance 
is fairly similar with slightly cooler temperatures, though still 
short of a widespread freeze. Frost is the primary concern though 
winds still on the mixy side. Expect at least areas protected from
northwest winds to see some frost though the still wet ground 
suggests skin temps will struggle to drop past freezing. Will go 
ahead with a Frost Advisory in northwest locations to provide 
notification of the potential first cold-season temperature 
hazard. 

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 404 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

After a cold start to the day on Thursday along with some morning 
frost, temperatures should warm into the low to mid 50s. Surface 
high pressure will move off to the east with return southerly flow
on the backside of the high across western Kansas Thursday night 
as a mid level trough moves across the central Plains. The trough 
is forecast to progress eastward across eastern Kansas during the 
day on Friday bringing an end to the rain by late afternoon. 
Clouds and precipitation will keep temperatures from recovering 
from lows in the 40s Friday morning and have cut back on guidance 
to the upper 40s to lower 50s. 

Saturday night and Sunday remnants of Sergio will move across the 
southern Plains. The tropical moisture associated with Sergio and a 
trajectory off the Gulf will focus an axis of rainfall across parts 
of eastern Kansas into Texas. A frontal boundary will be located to 
the south which will likely focus the heavier precipitation with 
light amounts further north across eastern Kansas as a mid level 
trough moves southeast across the Plains. There is some model 
discrepancy with the timing and strength of the mid level trough, so 
will continue to monitor later runs for increased consistency. 
Thickness Sunday supports a rain and snow mix across parts of north 
central Kansas. SOme very cold air moves into northeast Kansas 
Sunday night into Monday morning with temperatures falling into 
the upper 20s to lower 30s which would bring a hard freeze to much
of the area. Temperatures recover with rising heights and 
southerly winds for Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018

The surface front has moved through KMHK and should move through
KTOP and KFOE by 9Z WED. Behind the front expect IFR/low MVFR 
stratus ceilings through 12-14Z WED. Expect VFR conditions after
14Z at all terminals.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory from 4 AM to 9 AM CDT Thursday for KSZ008>010-020-
021-034.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Gargan