264 
FXUS61 KBGM 041908
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
308 PM EDT Thu Oct 4 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure from Canada will build into the area tonight
bringing drier weather through Friday. After a cool night
tonight, temperatures will be seasonable tomorrow. 

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

Cold front now cutting though central NY and will shortly enter
NEPA. Main area of showers is running well ahead of the front 
and is about to exit the southeast zones. Still a few scattered 
showers lingering back to the front. Sharp area of clearing 
behind the front should bring a bit of sun in the late 
afternoon to the NY zones, but not so much for NEPA. Temps back 
over southern Canada behind the front in the 50s, with dew 
points in the lower 40s. This colder and drier air will cont to
advect in overnight and brings a small risk if frost over the 
extreme north, so in collaboration with BUF and ALY have issued 
a Frost Advisory for norther Oneida county. 

Friday will be rain free and seasonable as the high drifts in 
overhead. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
345 am update... Upper level heights begin to build over the
eastern CONUS this period, while at the same time, a weakening
surface front drops southward from eastern Canada into NY State. 

Although dynamic support should be waning with time, proximity
of frontal convergence, along with some instability coincident
with daytime heating Saturday, is expected to allow for at least
scattered showers and thunderstorms. 

A warming trend in temperatures should begin over the weekend,
with highs Saturday ranging from the lower 60s over portions of
the Catskills, to the lower-middle 70s in the western Finger
Lakes region.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
415 am update... The main story this period will be the
development of an amplified upper ridge over the eastern states,
while a fairly deep upper trough drops into the western CONUS.
In general, this points to the likelihood of well above normal
temperatures for early October across CNY/NEPA, with daytime
highs well into the 70s, at the very least, along with mild
night-time lows mostly in the 60s.

As for precipitation, any scattered convection on Sunday near a
retreating warm front should diminish early next week, as
short-wave support lifts well north into Canada.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

MVFR and IFR over a couple spots in the rain early this
afternoon will improve later in the day as the cold front passes
and high pressure builds in. Overnight, winds should remain high
enough to keep the low level mixed and prevent widespread fog
from forming, so have left out of the TAFs for now. VFR
conditions are expected through the end of the period. 

Outlook...

Friday night through Tuesday...Mainly VFR. Possible early 
morning restrictions due to fog.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM EDT Friday for NYZ009.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...DGM