549 
FXUS63 KMPX 220756
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
256 AM CDT Sat Sep 22 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 256 AM CDT Sat Sep 22 2018

It's a cool start to this Saturday, with a few pockets in central
MN and western WI dipping down to around 35 overnight. However, 
the surface ridge that's responsible for this cooler air is 
already centered over southern WI, with southerly winds already 
firmly in place across western MN. It will be a sunny day, with 
those southerly winds resulting in highs 5 to 8 degrees warmer 
than what we saw for afternoon highs yesterday.

For tonight, we'll see a frontal zone strengthen across northern MN 
while a surface low develops over the Black Hills in response to a 
shortwave coming across the northern Rockies. This will help 
maintain a pressure gradient across the area through the night, with 
southeast winds keeping lows from falling into the 30s and also 
limiting any fog potential as well.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 256 AM CDT Sat Sep 22 2018

The low developing over the Black Hills tonight will move into 
eastern NoDak on Sunday, this will push the baroclinic zone over 
northern MN north as a warm front, while a cold front starts 
pushing across the Dakotas. This setup will push h85 temps in 
excess of 16C into southern MN, with highs in the low to mid 70s 
expected south of I-94. As was stated before, the baroclinic zone 
really gets tightened up and the result of that is highs on the 
other side of the warm front Sunday up along the international 
border will be in the mid 40s. Any precip associated with the 
boundary will be on it's cold side, so like Saturday, Sunday will 
be another mostly sunny day for the MPX area.

The cold front developing over the Dakotas on Sunday still looks to 
move into western MN Monday afternoon and move east across the rest 
of the area Monday night. Given this timing, we'll spend most of 
Monday in the warm sector, which will translate to another day of 
highs in the low to mid 70s. For precip chances, the best upper 
forcing with the track of the PV anomaly and moisture transport goes 
from eastern SD up into the Arrowhead, so southwest and south 
central MN may miss out on rainfall with this event. Instability is 
pretty limited, with the GFS showing MUCAPE generally under 500 
j/kg, so enough instability to generate some thunderstorms, but not 
enough to pose much of a severe risk.

Behind this system, we still look to see an amplification in the 
pattern, with a deep trough across central North America getting 
flanked by ridges on either coast of the continent. The trough looks 
to reach it's maximum southern extent Wednesday/Thursday. After 
that, the trough begins to flatten out, with a more zonal flow 
setting up across the northern CONUS the end of the week into next 
weekend. The maximum southern extent of the trough Wednesday into 
Thursday will be the result of a strong shortwave moving across the 
international border. A strong surface low (under 1000 mb) will move 
across the international border, with its associated cold front 
moving across the upper MS Valley Wednesday night, when high 
chance/likely pops exist. Once again, the track of the low will 
result in the highest precip chances/amounts going across northern 
MN, with chances/amounts dropping off the closer to Iowa you get. 

As the trough flattens out at the end of the week into next week,
we'll see seasonably strong flow move overhead with a strong low
level baroclinic zone, which will help keep periodic precip
chances going. Though this pattern will feature cooler
temperatures, the core of the cold air next week will remain out
from Montana up into the Canadian Prairies. So although
temperatures will be below normal next week, we are only talking
5-10 degrees below normal, with the coldest air with respect to
normal generally remaining northwest of us.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at |043 PM CDT Fri Sep 21 2018

VFR conditions expected throughout this TAF set as high pressure
slowly makes its way into MN/WI from the Dakotas. Mainly clear
skies expected overnight with only a few passing high cirrus
clouds. Fair weather mid-level cumulus clouds are possible 
tomorrow, no coverage more than SCT. N winds 5-10 kts this evening
will go light/variable overnight then pick up from the S tomorrow
to around 15G25kts.

KMSP...No significant weather impacts expected.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sun...VFR. Wind SE 10-15 kts.
Mon...Mainly VFR. Chc MVFR/TSRA late. Winds S 10-20 kts. 
Tue...VFR. Wind WNW 10-15 kts.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...JPC