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364 FXUS64 KBMX 201810 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 110 PM CDT Thu Sep 20 2018 .UPDATE... For 18Z Aviation. && .SHORT TERM... Today and Tonight. A dome of high pressure over the Southeast States will shift slowly eastward today and allow a low level southeast wind flow to develop. This will help push the warmest part of air mass northward and bring slightly cooler air into east Alabama. Temperatures this afternoon will once again be 8-10 degrees above normal with highs in the middle 90s. Drier air aloft will mix downward today and keep heat indices below 100 degrees. Isolated showers and possibly a thunderstorm may develop along the southern periphery of the upper high, and reduced rain chances to 20 percent or less for the extreme southern counties. The models indicate some lingering activity spreading northward along the Alabama and Mississippi state line overnight, and added 20 percent pops for the far western counties. 58/rose .LONG TERM... Friday through Thursday. Southerly flow around the western side of a ridge to our east will lead to positive moisture advection on Friday, in a relatively narrow north-south oriented corridor. This zone of PWAT values approaching the 2 inch mark should be centered near I-65, where rain chances are in the 30-40 percent range. Moisture quality has trended upward in recent model runs, and an increase in POPs may be required in future updates. Convection should be more isolated near the MS and GA borders, where drier air is expected to remain in place. As easterly flow develops to the north of an upper low moving westward across the Gulf of Mexico, drier air to our east should be pulled westward into areas along and south of I-20 for the weekend. At the same time, a slow-moving front entering the picture from the northwest could make enough southward progress to enhance rain chances along and northwest of I-59. POPs currently range from near 20 percent in our southeast to 50 percent in the far northwest on Saturday and Sunday. Models are still in general agreement on a pattern shift for Monday through Thursday, with a broad trough becoming prominent over the central and northern CONUS, and a ridge to our east. Eventually the residual lower moisture content across eastern Alabama should be overwhelmed by deep-layer southerly flow on Monday or Tuesday, leading to more uniform 30-50 POPs across the forecast area. Models are indicating the potential for widespread showers and storms on Wednesday and Thursday with 2.0 to 2.2 inch PWAT values pooling in advance of a strong cold front. 87/Grantham && .AVIATION... 18Z TAF Discussion. VFR will be the predominate flight category. Cannot rule out a few showers or storms this afternoon, but high pressure aloft will continue to suppress convection and limit cloud cover for much of the area. Winds will become calm overnight. With drier air across the area, fog development will be limited. Winds will increase from the east to southeast Friday morning, at 4-5kts. 07/14 && .FIRE WEATHER... Moist southerly flow should result in gradually increasing rain chances over the next several days. Patchy fog and/or low clouds may become more likely for Friday and into the upcoming week. There are no fire weather concerns at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 94 70 90 69 90 / 10 10 30 20 30 Anniston 95 71 91 69 92 / 10 10 20 20 20 Birmingham 96 73 92 72 91 / 10 10 40 20 30 Tuscaloosa 97 74 93 72 91 / 10 20 30 20 40 Calera 94 72 90 70 90 / 10 10 40 20 30 Auburn 93 71 89 70 89 / 10 10 10 10 10 Montgomery 96 72 92 72 92 / 10 10 40 20 20 Troy 94 71 91 70 91 / 20 10 30 10 20 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/... None. && $$