333 
FNUS73 KPAH 191324
FWSPAH

Spot Forecast for West Tract...USFS SHAWNEE NF
National Weather Service Paducah KY
824 AM CDT Wed Sep 19 2018

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 CDT on September 19. 
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Ongoing shower activity across southern IL should continue to
weaken over the next few hours. However, a light shower is not out
of the question this morning. Otherwise it will be hot today with
heat indices near 100 degrees this afternoon. There will continue
to be a slight chance for some additional showers and/or storms
through the afternoon. Warm conditions will continue into Thursday.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent). Slight chance of 
                    showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.  
CWR.................10 percent. 
Temperature.........79 at ignition...Max 92. 
RH..................75 percent at ignition...Min 49 percent. 
Wind (20 ft)........ 
 Slope/valley.......Winds southwest at 3 mph at 
                    ignition...otherwise Light winds becoming 
                    southwest 5 to 6 mph in the afternoon. Gusty 
                    and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms 
                    early in the afternoon. 
Mixing height.......4200 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 4200-5800 
                    ft AGL increasing to 7000-8900 ft AGL late in 
                    the morning, then decreasing to 5600 ft AGL 
                    late in the afternoon. 
Transport winds.....Southwest 5 to 6 mph. 
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume 
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 3. 

TIME (CDT)      9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM   
Sky cover.......MCLEAR PCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY  
Weather cov.....              S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  
Weather type....NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR 
Tstm cov........              S CHC  S CHC         
CWR.............0      0      10     10     10      
Temp............79     87     91     92     89     
RH..............75     58     50     49     53     
20 FT wind dir..SW     SW     SW     SW     S      
20 FT wind spd..3      3      5      5      5      
20 FT wind gust.6      6      7      7      7      
Mix hgt (ft)....4200   7000   8200   8900   5600   
Transp wind dir.SW     W      SW     SW     S      
Transp wind spd.6      6      5      6      5      
Haines index....3      3      3      3      3      

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent). Slight chance of 
                    showers early in the evening. 
CWR.................0 percent. 
Temperature.........Min 69. 
RH..................Max 97 percent. 
Wind (20 ft)........ 
 Slope/valley.......Light winds. 
Mixing height.......2600 ft AGL decreasing to 0-100 ft AGL. 
Transport winds.....South 2 to 6 mph. 
Haines Index........3 to 4 OR or very low potential for large plume 
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for 
                    large plume dominated fire growth. 

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM   
Sky cover.......PCLDY  PCLDY  MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR 
Weather cov.....S CHC                                     
Weather type....RNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   
Tstm cov........                                          
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0      0      
Temp............87     82     77     74     73     71     
RH..............57     68     79     83     87     92     
20 FT wind dir..S      S      SE     S      S      S      
20 FT wind spd..3      0      1      1      1      1      
20 FT wind gust.6             2      2             2      
Mix hgt (ft)....2600   BLW100 100    100    100    100    
Transp wind dir.S      SE     SE     S      S      S      
Transp wind spd.3      2      3      5      6      6      
Haines index....3      3      3      3      3      4      

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent). 
CWR.................0 percent. 
Temperature.........Max 93. 
RH..................Min 41 percent. 
Wind (20 ft)........ 
 Slope/valley.......Light winds becoming south 5 to 9 mph early in 
                    the morning. 
Mixing height.......0-1100 ft AGL increasing to 2500-4200 ft AGL 
                    late in the morning, then increasing to 
                    5900-7600 ft AGL late in the morning increasing 
                    to 8800-9900 ft AGL in the afternoon decreasing 
                    to 6300 ft AGL. 
Transport winds.....Southwest 5 to 14 mph shifting to the south 14 
                    to 16 mph late in the afternoon. 
Haines Index........3 to 4 OR or very low potential for large plume 
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for 
                    large plume dominated fire growth. 

TIME (CDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM   
Sky cover.......MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR PCLDY  
Weather cov.....                                          
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   
Tstm cov........                                          
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0      0      
Temp............69     74     84     90     93     92     
RH..............97     84     63     49     41     43     
20 FT wind dir..S      S      S      S      S      S      
20 FT wind spd..2      5      6      7      9      9      
20 FT wind gust.3                                  12     
Mix hgt (ft)....BLW100 1100   4200   7600   9700   9000   
Transp wind dir.S      S      SW     SW     SW     S      
Transp wind spd.5      7      14     14     14     16     
Haines index....3      3      3      3      3      4      

$$
Forecaster...WFO PADUCAH
Requested by...Shawnee National Forest
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1815989.0/PAH
.DELDT 09/19/18
.EMAIL wjiter@fs.fed.us