National Weather Service Raw Text Product

094 
FXUS63 KGLD 181855
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1255 PM MDT Tue Sep 18 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1225 PM MDT Tue Sep 18 2018

Outflow from morning convection has reinforced or pushed south
cold front a little further. As a result the amount of warming is
not as much as previously expected over our northern counties. So
lowered the maxes there. However further south warming is ahead of
schedule. So warmed up the maxes further south. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 315 AM MDT Tue Sep 18 2018

Upper level ridge is still sitting over the Tri-State area, 
leaving us to expect not much in the way of weather again today. 
Another round of lower 90 daily highs forecast for the afternoon. 
Went ahead and leaned more on persistence than the blend. 
Superblend appears to favor more seasonably average temperatures 
than the above average daily highs we have been seeing this past 
week.

Highs will still be in the 90s come Wednesday afternoon. As for
weather, it will be a different story, as a cold front moves 
across the area. Showers and storms are forecast to impact the 
area tomorrow afternoon and again on Thursday. Convection will 
progress along the front towards the southeast moving mostly out 
of the Tri-State area come Friday. 

Winds are also expected to be elevated Thursday in the 20-25 mph 
range with higher gusts. That said, RH values are expected to be
elevated above 15%, so no fire weather concerns at this time. 

Held Thursday's daily highs just a couple of degrees higher than 
guidance, but still expecting the Tri-State area to drop into the
upper 70s and lower 80s after the FROPA. Lows are expected to sit
in the 60s tonight and tomorrow, with cooler lows in the mid 50s
to mid 60s come Thursday night. 

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 1253 PM MDT Tue Sep 18 2018

A longwave trough progressing eastward from the Pacific Northwest 
Wednesday will provide the first chances for rainfall across the 
Central High Plains for the first time in several days. An 
associated weak cold front will be progressing southeastward across 
the Tri-State area beginning Wednesday evening and offering the 
chance for showers and thunderstorms through Thursday evening. These 
showers and thunderstorms will be scattered and will not bring 
widespread heavy rain, however the possibility of a severe 
thunderstorm cannot be ruled out, especially Wednesday evening in NE 
Colorado. SPC currently has a Marginal risk for severe weather for 
the NW portion of our forecast area, with the main hazards being 
large hail and/or gusty winds.

Things finally begin to cool back down to something more seasonable 
on Thursday as the cold front progresses south and east. High 
temperatures on Thursday will be down to the upper 70s as showers 
and thunderstorms/cloud cover along the cold front passes through NW 
Kansas midday Thursday. Any showers and thunderstorms Thursday are 
not expected to be severe at this time. Low temperatures also jump 
from the 60s overnight Wednesday to the 50s overnight Thursday. 

By Friday, high temperatures drop even more to the low 70s as 
northerly surface winds behind the front bring in significantly 
cooler air to the Central High Plains. Rain chances diminish 
beginning overnight Thursday as the cold front progresses into 
central KS. Lows Friday will be in the low 50s across the Central 
High Plains. Saturday and Sunday are shaping up to be very fall-like 
and pleasant with dry and breezy conditions, partly cloudy skies, 
low temperatures in the mid 50s, and high temperatures in the mid to 
upper 70s. 

With returning southerly surface winds bringing low-level warmth and 
moisture at the end of this week, high temperatures will climb back 
into the low to mid 80s by Monday. Also by Monday the next upper-
level trough is expected to bring stronger upper-level flow and 
increased dynamic support for ascent which could be supportive of 
afternoon/evening diurnal showers and thunderstorms. However, there 
is significant model disagreement in terms of the location and 
strength of the trough early next week. Isolated showers and 
thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon and evening, with 
increasing confidence for showers and thunderstorms for Tuesday 
afternoon and evening. 

Depending on the strength/location of the trough and any possible 
associated surface lows or cold fronts, temperatures could start 
decreasing back to the low 70s by Tuesday. Confidence is low for any 
forecast that far in advance, but if the trough early next week is 
as strong as some models predict, it could usher in the end of the 
summer-like heat in the Central High Plains for a long time as we 
march toward winter.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1121 AM MDT Tue Sep 18 2018

Vfr conditions are expected through the period. For Kgld, light
and variable winds will shift to the south at 12 knots through the
end of the period. For Kmck, an outflow boundary from convection
to the north has brought east winds near 14 knots with gusts to
near 22 knots. Those winds will shift to the east southeast near
10 knots around 20z. Those winds will continue until 14z when the
winds shift to the south at 6 knots. 


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...EV
LONG TERM...PATTON
AVIATION...BULLER