National Weather Service Raw Text Product

298 
FXUS62 KJAX 181331
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
931 AM EDT Tue Sep 18 2018

.UPDATE...

No major changes made to the forecast. A shortwave trough pinched
between a ridge of high pressure over the southern Plains and
another ridge in the western Atlantic will gradually move off the
east coast throughout the day today and into the overnight. The
vorticity maxima associated with the shortwave stays to the north
until late this evening, potentially allowing
showers/thunderstorms to linger overnight. Similar to yesterday,
the development of convection will be scattered around the area as
light southwesterly flow persists. With the weak flow, sea-breeze
boundaries will push inland during the early afternoon allowing
for increased moisture convergence and additional convection. This
morning's upper air sounding still shows a moisture axis over much
of the area with PWATs ranging from 1.9-2.1 inches. As a result,
heavy downpours can be expected over localized areas today. While
the freezing level continues to drop back to near normals, overall
the atmosphere remains fairly warm. This should limit the
strongest storms to outflow boundary collisions and storm mergers.
Day time highs once again very warm with temperatures in the low
to mid 90s with heat indices into the low 100s. 

For tonight, the broad scale lift associated with the shortwave 
will move in from the north, potentially aiding new
shower and thunderstorm development even as daytime heating 
decreases with the setting sun. Will have to wait to see how
daytime convection evolves before knowing where the rain possibly
lingers into the late evening hours. The shortwave is not
particularly strong so coverage will be limited. 


&&

.AVIATION...

Scattered convection again today but kept VCTS in TAFs given the
low confidence in coverage. VCSH kept in for the evening hours as
a shortwave trough could help keep some isolated activity around
through the overnight. Scattered cloud debris into the overnight
and early morning with no restrictions expected at this time. 

&&

.MARINE...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms once again possible over the
waters today as a surface trough moves into the area. Pressure
gradient could create gusty winds over the waters but SCEC
conditions not forecast. 

Rip Currents: Moderate risk of rip currents for all area beaches
given long period swells still persist.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  93  72  93  73 /  30  10  10  10 
SSI  90  76  90  77 /  40  40  10  20 
JAX  92  74  93  75 /  40  50  30  20 
SGJ  90  76  90  75 /  40  40  30  10 
GNV  92  73  93  73 /  40  30  30  30 
OCF  92  72  93  73 /  30  30  30  30 

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

McGinnis