359 
FXUS63 KILX 131759
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1259 PM CDT Thu Sep 13 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1100 AM CDT Thu Sep 13 2018

Forecast generally looked on track today with just a few minor
adjustments to sky cover, as mid level clouds have mostly
dissipated at late morning se of Decatur. Another nice day
unfolding across central and southeast IL, compliments of 1029 mb
high pressure anchored over southern Quebec and ridging sw into
central IL. Also an upper level subtropical ridge of 594 dm off
the mid Atlantic coast was ridging westward into the mid MS river
valley and southern Plains. Few to scattered cumulus clouds to 
develop this afternoon with winds remaining less than 10 mph.
Temps currently in the low to mid 70s, and will warm into the
lower 80s across much of area by mid afternoon, similar to past
few days. Humidity levels still fairly comfortable with dewpoints
in the 60-65F range and should slip a few degrees during the 
afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 155 AM CDT Thu Sep 13 2018

Same story, different day, as upper level ridge remains in place.
We continue to see some mid and high clouds streaming northward 
from the Ohio Valley, and this will continue through the day. Cu-
rule suggests little in the way of diurnal cumulus except perhaps
in the far western CWA, so skies will continue to be mostly 
sunny. With not much change in air mass, persistence seems the 
best bet, with low-mid 80s for highs and lower 60s for lows. 

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 155 AM CDT Thu Sep 13 2018

Focus into early next week remains with the interaction of the
ridge and Hurricane Florence. No real changes around here through
the weekend, as the ridge closes off into a high over the Great
Lakes, as the remnants of Florence drift across the Carolinas.
Longer range models still struggling with the ultimate disposition
of the system, with the GFS and Canadian models faster and 
further west than the European model. None are especially 
conducive to wet weather in our area, though those two models both
show some hints of some more distant shower bands. Aside from some
slight chance PoP's Sunday afternoon, the forecast will remain dry
into early next week.

Going further into next week, the models are showing a trend
toward the ridge redeveloping across the Mississippi Valley. This
would indicate a delay in the cooling trend previously expected.
Kept some low PoP's across the northern CWA on Wednesday for now,
though the indications are that the cold front may end up 
remaining further north. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Thu Sep 13 2018

VFR conditions are forecast to continue across the central IL
airports thru 18Z/1 pm Friday. 1028 mb high pressure over southern
Quebec and ridging sw into central IL will remain in place thru
Friday. This will keep winds less than 10 kts with few diurnal
cumulus clouds 3.5-5k ft. Strong upper level ridge will also 
remain anchored over the central and southeast US keeping fair wx 
over the area rest of this week. 

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...07