861 
FXUS63 KILX 131139
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
639 AM CDT Thu Sep 13 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 155 AM CDT Thu Sep 13 2018

Same story, different day, as upper level ridge remains in place.
We continue to see some mid and high clouds streaming northward 
from the Ohio Valley, and this will continue through the day. Cu-
rule suggests little in the way of diurnal cumulus except perhaps
in the far western CWA, so skies will continue to be mostly 
sunny. With not much change in air mass, persistence seems the 
best bet, with low-mid 80s for highs and lower 60s for lows. 

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 155 AM CDT Thu Sep 13 2018

Focus into early next week remains with the interaction of the
ridge and Hurricane Florence. No real changes around here through
the weekend, as the ridge closes off into a high over the Great
Lakes, as the remnants of Florence drift across the Carolinas.
Longer range models still struggling with the ultimate disposition
of the system, with the GFS and Canadian models faster and 
further west than the European model. None are especially 
conducive to wet weather in our area, though those two models both
show some hints of some more distant shower bands. Aside from some
slight chance PoP's Sunday afternoon, the forecast will remain dry
into early next week.

Going further into next week, the models are showing a trend
toward the ridge redeveloping across the Mississippi Valley. This
would indicate a delay in the cooling trend previously expected.
Kept some low PoP's across the northern CWA on Wednesday for now,
though the indications are that the cold front may end up 
remaining further north. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 639 AM CDT Thu Sep 13 2018

VFR conditions expected the next 24 hours. The CU rules are
showing that PIA and SPI could see fair weather cumulus develop in
the heat of the day, around 3K feet. Otherwise, any other clouds 
will generally be above 10kft. Winds will be generally in the 4-8
mph range from the east/southeast during the day, and light and
variable at night.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Shimon