686 
FXUS63 KILX 032041
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
341 PM CDT Mon Sep 3 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT Mon Sep 3 2018

The forecast remains hot and humid through tomorrow. Tonight, lows
only settling into the 70s, but winds expected to stay up just
enough to preclude widespread fog formation...though areas across
the north with more shower activity this afternoon will need to be
watched. Continued southerly flow at the surface through tonight
and tomorrow. Temps are again on the warmer side of guidance 
today. So again, have edged the temps up a degree or two. Also,
given the broad area of quick showers today, and little airmass
change before tomorrow... have put in at least sprinkles for the
afternoon considering a similar cu field can be anticipated
tomorrow. If trends continue, may expect an isold mention in the
west and northern portions of the CWA...particularly with
proximity to the south/southwesterly winds in the midlevels. 


&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT Mon Sep 3 2018
Frontal boundary on approach overnight into Wednesday morning
brings the better chances for more widespread showers and
thunderstorms. Wave moving across southern Canada at 500mb moving
to dislodge/flatten the ridging over the southeastern CONUS. This
also makes room for TS Gordon to make its way onshore. The
moisture feeding into the region midweek through the end of the
week will have an impact in the QPF more than anything. The
frontal boundary that moves into the region on Wednesday/Thursday
will be close to parallel flow aloft going into the latter portion
of the week. The progress of the frontal boundary and ample
moisture in the atmosphere is setting up for a wet end to the
week. A lot of unknowns at this point concerning the location of
the boundary, and so far, the axis of highest QPF remains to the
north. 

Cooler temps move into the northern half of the state at least
with the front for the end of the week, partially being access to
slightly cooler air behind the front, partially from clouds and
rain invof the slow moving boundary. The next system moves out of
the Rockies going into the weekend, with yet another round of 
storms. 


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Mon Sep 3 2018
Hot and humid airmass has resulted in some cellular convection
within an expansive cu field. For now, only tempo
for PIA with a few cells moving straight up the IL River on 
radar. VCSH for everyone, and VCTS for PIA,
closer to a stronger midlevel airflow and more expansive
convective activity. Otherwise, southerly winds, cu dissipating at
sunset and cirrus through the overnight. Will have to keep an eye
on other terminals for imminent showers/TS. 


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...HJS