630 
FXUS63 KMQT 300852
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
452 AM EDT Thu Aug 30 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 301 AM EDT THU AUG 30 2018

High pressure dominating the region tonight has allowed for drier 
air at mid levels, light sfc winds, thus ample radiational cooling, 
which has led to the development of some areas of shallow ground fog 
in the interior. Temperatures have already fallen into the low 40s 
and even mid/upper 30s in a few spots, but shouldn't have too much 
more room to tank. Isolated frost cannot be ruled out but should 
only affect very rural locations. 

Winds will pick up to 5-10 mph out of the south during the day, and 
with ample sunshine ground fog should burn off quickly and 
temperatures will recover to around 70. A few 15 mph gusts appear 
likely this afternoon as low level lapse rates increase and mixing 
commences. 

As troughing begins to dig into the western US on Friday morning, an 
approaching shortwave will kick off showers and perhaps a few 
thunderstorms over western Lake Superior and the western UP before 
12Z, but the majority of the precipitation will hold off until the 
daytime.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 241 AM EDT THU AUG 30 2018

Upper air pattern will have a trough in the western U.S. with a 
ridge across the southern plains and a shortwave across the upper 
Great Lakes 12z Fri. The shortwave moves through on Fri and then 
upper troughing remains over the upper Great Lakes through Sat 
night. Nam shows some 850-500 mb q-vector convergence and deeper 
moisture moving through the area on Fri into Sat morning before both 
move out by Sat evening. Will become more humid for this forecast 
period. Did not make too many changes to the going forecast.

In the extended, GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb broad trough across the 
western U.S. with a ridge across the sern U.S. 12z Sun. The ridge 
builds across the ern U.S. Mon into Tue as trough deepens in the 
west. The ridge builds into New England on Wed and into the southern 
plains. A shortwave moves into the upper Great Lakes on Thu. Above 
normal temperatures will continue through this period along with it 
being more humid through Wed night.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 452 AM EDT THU AUG 30 2018

Fog of variable density has now developed at all three TAF sites. It 
is expected to remain least dense/most clear at KIWD, but may 
briefly become dense again early this morning. At KCMX, visibilities 
have fallen to landing minimums, but will likely remain variable. 
And at KSAW, the fog has been more persistent the last couple of 
hours, and the ASOS is recording VLIFR CIGS, but up the hill at our 
office in Negaunee township we have seen the fog go from dense to 
non-existent in a matter of minutes, then return a short while 
later, so we can expect there to be intermittent dense fog with 
periods of clearing possible. Conditions will rapidly improve to VFR 
after sunrise at all three sites.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 301 AM EDT THU AUG 30 2018

Winds will remain at or below 15 knots until tonight, when they will 
increase up to 20 knots by early Friday morning across much of the 
lake and 25 knots Friday evening and overnight over the east half. 
Winds will then remain below 15 knots through the middle of next 
week.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KCW
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...KCW
MARINE...KCW