National Weather Service Text Product
AFOS product AFDVEF
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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDVEF
Product Timestamp: 2018-08-26 21:46 UTC
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782 FXUS65 KVEF 262146 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 246 PM PDT Sun Aug 26 2018 .SYNOPSIS... After storms over Mohave County dissipate this evening, dry conditions will prevail for much of the week. Breezy, afternoon winds are expected each day with gusts of around 25 mph. Temperatures will remain close to season normals. && .SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday. Currently, isolated storms are initiating over Mohave County where a good bit of instability has developed over the last couple of hours and PWATS remain between 1.0-1.2 inches. Further development in convection this afternoon should be confined to Mohave County. Have increased precip chances westward on the Arizona Strip to Mesquite and Littlefield as well as over southeastern Mohave County to mention chances for storms this afternoon. Mid-level trough will settle over much of the western U.S. today and tomorrow which will help push out any lingering moisture over Mohave County by this evening. Once storms diminish early this evening, dry conditions are expected for the remainder of the short term period along with continued breezy, southwest winds. Temps will remain right around seasonal norms the next couple of days. .LONG TERM...Wednesday through Monday. Second day doing the long term forecast and run-to-run model consistency has not been the best. This especially goes for the ECMWF which last nights 00Z solution was quite different than yesterdays 12z run. Models likely having a difficult time resolving disturbances embedded in fast flow across the northern Pacific. Air mass across the region will stay dry and stable Wednesday-Friday as monsoon moisture stays suppressed to our southeast. Temperatures will be running at or slightly above normal. Afternoon/evening breezes will develop each day with gusts generally in the 15-25 mph range. Over the weekend, a weak trough is forecast to move across the Great Basin. This could draw moisture back into Mohave County. Kept the forecast dry through the weekend. Saturday may be the windiest day with gust 20-30 mph. && .AVIATION...For McCarran...Winds are expected to remain southwesterly through the overnight hours. Afternoon wind speeds will be similar to the previous days, reaching to around 15 knots gusting 25 knots. Winds decrease to 10 knots or less after sunset and become more southerly late tonight. Southeasterly winds look to take over again on Monday morning at 8-10 knots before becoming gusty out of the southwest between 19-21z. Cloud cover will decrease this evening leaving clear skies for the remainder of the period. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...Southwest winds will prevail for the remainder of the afternoon with gusts reaching between 20-25 knots. Storms over Mohave County will dwindle early this evening. Winds will lower after sunset and slowly subside through late tonight with the exception being the western Mojave Desert where winds will increase to near 20 knots gusting 30 knots this evening. Dry conditions are expected on Monday with breezy, southwest winds more focused along I-15 and to south and east. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION...Guillet LONG TERM....Pierce For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: http://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter
917 FXUS65 KVEF 270258 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 246 PM PDT Sun Aug 26 2018 .SYNOPSIS... After storms over Mohave County dissipate this evening, dry conditions will prevail for much of the week. Breezy, afternoon winds are expected each day with gusts of around 25 mph. Temperatures will remain close to season normals. && .UPDATE...Overall forecast is in good shape. The only change made this evening was to eliminate the mention of rain chances in northeastern Mohave County. Water vapor imagery shows a pronounced tongue of dry air extending from central California coast across southern Nevada and into northwest Arizona. This dry southwest flow will keep conditions dry through the week. .PREV DISCUSSION... 246 PM PDT Sun Aug 26 2018 .SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday. Currently, isolated storms are initiating over Mohave County where a good bit of instability has developed over the last couple of hours and PWATS remain between 1.0-1.2 inches. Further development in convection this afternoon should be confined to Mohave County. Have increased precip chances westward on the Arizona Strip to Mesquite and Littlefield as well as over southeastern Mohave County to mention chances for storms this afternoon. Mid-level trough will settle over much of the western U.S. today and tomorrow which will help push out any lingering moisture over Mohave County by this evening. Once storms diminish early this evening, dry conditions are expected for the remainder of the short term period along with continued breezy, southwest winds. Temps will remain right around seasonal norms the next couple of days. .LONG TERM...Wednesday through Monday. Second day doing the long term forecast and run-to-run model consistency has not been the best. This especially goes for the ECMWF which last nights 00Z solution was quite different than yesterdays 12z run. Models likely having a difficult time resolving disturbances embedded in fast flow across the northern Pacific. Air mass across the region will stay dry and stable Wednesday-Friday as monsoon moisture stays suppressed to our southeast. Temperatures will be running at or slightly above normal. Afternoon/evening breezes will develop each day with gusts generally in the 15-25 mph range. Over the weekend, a weak trough is forecast to move across the Great Basin. This could draw moisture back into Mohave County. Kept the forecast dry through the weekend. Saturday may be the windiest day with gust 20-30 mph. && .AVIATION...For McCarran...Winds are expected to remain southwesterly through the overnight hours. Afternoon wind speeds will be similar to the previous days, reaching to around 15 knots gusting 25 knots. Winds decrease to 10 knots or less after sunset and become more southerly late tonight. Southeasterly winds look to take over again on Monday morning at 8-10 knots before becoming gusty out of the southwest between 19-21z. Cloud cover will decrease this evening leaving clear skies for the remainder of the period. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...Southwest winds will prevail for the remainder of the afternoon with gusts reaching between 20-25 knots. Storms over Mohave County will dwindle early this evening. Winds will lower after sunset and slowly subside through late tonight with the exception being the western Mojave Desert where winds will increase to near 20 knots gusting 30 knots this evening. Dry conditions are expected on Monday with breezy, southwest winds more focused along I-15 and to south and east. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION...Guillet LONG TERM....Pierce For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: http://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter