National Weather Service Text Product
AFOS product AFDBMX
Dates interpreted at 00:00 UTCDisplaying AFOS PIL: AFDBMX
Product Timestamp: 2018-08-26 08:25 UTC
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098 FXUS64 KBMX 260825 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 325 AM CDT Sun Aug 26 2018 .SHORT TERM... Today and Tonight. A surface ridge along the Atlantic Coast and a building upper high over the Gulf Coast States will result in minimal cloud cover and rain across Central Alabama. An axis of deeper moisture that resulted in convection along and west of I-65 yesterday has pushed westward into Mississippi with drier air over Georgia advecting into east Alabama. There may be enough moisture over southwest Alabama for a few afternoon showers or thunderstorms, and kept a slight chance of rain in for areas along and south a Demopolis to Selma line. Slightly cooler temperatures across the east again today with highs in the upper 80s, but lower 90s elsewhere. 58/rose .LONG TERM... Monday through Saturday. Southerly low-level flow will become more prevalent on Monday as a deep-layer ridge shifts eastward. This should result in positive moisture advection with subsidence becoming less of a factor. Models generally indicate the best moisture remaining south of I-20 on Monday, and this is where isolated to scattered convection can be expected. Guidance continues to indicate slow height falls through the end of the week along with increasing PWAT values across the Deep South. These are good signs of a more convectively-active period to follow. Increasing rain chances may initially affect our eastern and southern counties on Tuesday, but this should spread to the remainder of the forecast area for Wednesday through Saturday. Scattered convection driven by daytime heating should yield rain chances of 30-50 percent during this period. 87/Grantham && .AVIATION... 06Z TAF Discussion. VFR conds expected thru the period. A deep layered ridge over the Southeast States will produce a stable air mass across Central Alabama. The low level pressure gradient will stay strong enough to produce southeast boundary layer winds around 10 knots thru 12z, and hinder fog formation. A minimum in low level moisture across Alabama will keep skies mostly void of low clouds or cigs thru 15z, with sct cumulus developing during the heating of the day. Rain chances too low to include at any TAF sites. 58/rose && .FIRE WEATHER... Rain chances for today appear low and confined to our southwestern counties. However, moisture and rain chances should gradually increase through the upcoming week. Some patchy fog is possible each morning. There are no fire weather concerns at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 91 69 91 71 90 / 10 0 10 10 30 Anniston 90 69 91 71 91 / 10 0 10 10 30 Birmingham 92 72 92 74 92 / 10 0 10 10 20 Tuscaloosa 93 73 93 73 93 / 10 0 10 10 20 Calera 91 71 90 72 90 / 10 0 20 10 20 Auburn 89 71 88 72 89 / 10 0 30 10 40 Montgomery 92 72 92 73 92 / 10 0 30 10 30 Troy 90 71 90 72 91 / 10 10 40 10 40 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/... None. && $$