National Weather Service Text Product
AFOS product ESFEAX
Dates interpreted at 00:00 UTCDisplaying AFOS PIL: ESFEAX
Product Timestamp: 2018-08-23 14:45 UTC
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881
FGUS73 KEAX 231445
ESFEAX
MOC001-003-005-021-033-037-041-047-053-061-075-079-083-087-089-095-
101-115-117-121-147-159-165-171-177-195-197-KSC005-091-103-240000-
Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
945 AM CDT Thu Aug 23 2018
In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.
CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.
HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.
When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.
...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
Valid Period: 08/25/2018 - 11/23/2018
: Current and Historical
: Chances of Exceeding
: Flood Categories
: as a Percentage (%)
Categorical :
Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major
Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---
:Delaware River
Muscotah 27.0 28.0 36.0 : 23 28 15 26 <5 <5
:Stranger Creek
Easton 17.0 18.0 23.0 : 55 57 51 54 12 13
Tonganoxie 23.0 30.0 35.0 : 38 41 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Kansas River
De Soto 26.0 33.0 36.0 : <5 6 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Tarkio River
Fairfax 17.0 18.0 25.0 : 31 24 27 23 17 20
:Nodaway River
Burlington Juncti 23.0 28.0 35.0 : 9 9 5 <5 <5 <5
:102 River
Maryville 18.0 23.0 28.0 : 6 13 <5 6 <5 <5
Rosendale 18.0 18.1 23.0 : 8 15 8 15 5 <5
:Platte River
Agency 20.0 25.0 30.0 : 23 35 11 20 6 5
:Little Platte River
Smithville 27.0 30.5 35.0 : 8 12 <5 6 <5 <5
:Platte River
Sharps Station 26.0 29.0 33.0 : 15 34 12 16 5 5
Platte City 20.0 25.0 29.0 : 15 34 7 9 <5 <5
:Blue River
Blue Ridge Boulev 35.0 39.0 48.0 : 9 14 <5 <5 <5 <5
Bannister Road 34.0 40.0 42.0 : 5 6 <5 <5 <5 <5
71 Highway 61.0 66.0 68.0 : <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5
63rd Street 48.0 53.0 55.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Colorado Avenue 56.0 61.0 67.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Stadium Drive 33.0 39.0 43.0 : 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
40 Highway 30.0 35.0 40.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
17th Street 24.0 25.0 27.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
12th Street 30.0 35.0 40.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Little Blue River
Lake City 18.0 25.0 27.0 : 26 23 7 5 <5 <5
:Crooked River
Richmond 20.0 21.0 29.0 : 35 49 31 47 <5 <5
:Wakenda Creek
Carrollton 16.0 19.0 21.0 : 41 47 33 35 20 24
:Blackwater River
Valley City 22.0 25.0 31.0 : 46 54 40 46 17 23
Blue Lick 24.0 29.0 37.0 : 57 64 42 41 <5 <5
:Lamine River
Otterville 15.0 18.0 26.0 : 41 43 34 35 <5 <5
:Moniteau Creek
Fayette 16.0 21.0 25.0 : 41 48 11 15 <5 <5
:Petite Saline Creek
Boonville 16.0 19.5 26.0 : 34 35 24 25 <5 <5
:Thompson River
Trenton 27.0 31.0 34.0 : 20 26 <5 10 <5 <5
:Grand River
Pattonsburg 25.0 30.0 32.0 : 23 26 20 22 17 21
Gallatin 26.0 33.0 39.0 : 20 23 9 10 <5 <5
Chillicothe 24.0 28.0 35.0 : 39 45 27 34 8 9
Sumner 26.0 28.0 40.0 : 54 59 46 50 <5 <5
:Chariton River
Novinger 20.0 23.0 26.0 : 10 14 5 11 <5 8
Prairie Hill 15.0 19.0 21.0 : 25 34 13 19 <5 8
:South Grand River
Urich 24.0 26.0 33.0 : 46 54 42 47 <5 <5
:Big Creek
Blairstown 20.0 23.0 36.0 : 52 63 45 50 <5 <5
:Marais Des Cygnes River
Osawatomie 28.0 45.0 48.0 : 30 42 <5 <5 <5 <5
La Cygne 25.0 30.0 36.0 : 32 46 22 28 <5 <5
Trading Post 27.0 29.0 40.0 : 33 41 30 39 <5 5
Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet
In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.
...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Exceeding Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 08/25/2018 - 11/23/2018
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Delaware River
Muscotah 2.2 2.9 6.8 13.6 26.9 30.3 32.7
:Stranger Creek
Easton 2.1 3.5 10.1 18.3 21.3 23.9 25.2
Tonganoxie 2.1 4.1 10.7 18.4 25.4 27.4 27.6
:Kansas River
De Soto 7.0 7.0 7.9 9.5 14.6 20.9 24.6
:Tarkio River
Fairfax 6.0 6.6 9.1 12.6 19.3 28.0 30.6
:Nodaway River
Burlington Juncti 5.1 5.6 7.2 9.6 12.9 21.7 26.9
:102 River
Maryville 6.3 7.2 9.0 10.5 14.2 15.5 19.7
Rosendale 3.1 3.3 4.4 10.6 14.6 16.4 22.9
:Platte River
Agency 6.8 7.7 11.0 15.0 19.3 25.4 32.2
:Little Platte River
Smithville 12.2 12.5 13.6 14.5 16.5 25.9 28.9
:Platte River
Sharps Station 5.7 7.0 11.1 17.5 21.6 29.9 33.0
Platte City 0.6 2.6 7.3 12.7 16.6 23.7 28.2
:Blue River
Blue Ridge Boulev 26.0 26.1 26.4 26.9 29.9 33.8 36.9
Bannister Road 6.6 6.9 7.7 12.4 23.1 30.6 33.8
71 Highway 34.8 34.9 35.7 41.2 51.8 56.8 59.2
63rd Street 25.1 25.2 25.8 28.2 35.2 41.7 43.6
Colorado Avenue 33.3 33.6 35.1 39.5 44.1 49.6 52.7
Stadium Drive 7.6 7.9 9.2 16.1 22.4 28.3 32.3
40 Highway 0.9 1.4 3.8 10.4 16.7 22.5 26.5
17th Street 1.5 1.6 2.4 6.8 11.9 17.3 21.7
12th Street 5.8 6.1 7.8 15.3 19.4 24.8 28.9
:Little Blue River
Lake City 5.1 5.3 6.3 11.6 18.8 23.1 26.0
:Crooked River
Richmond 5.3 5.3 7.1 14.9 22.5 26.6 27.3
:Thompson River
Trenton 10.3 11.1 12.3 16.5 24.6 29.9 30.4
:Grand River
Pattonsburg 1.6 1.6 3.4 11.7 21.2 36.0 39.2
Gallatin 3.0 3.0 4.9 11.3 23.8 32.7 35.3
Chillicothe 3.2 3.5 7.4 17.8 29.1 34.1 37.1
Sumner 6.7 7.4 13.4 27.0 33.1 35.8 38.0
:Chariton River
Novinger -0.2 -0.1 0.7 3.2 13.3 19.6 23.6
Prairie Hill 1.0 1.1 2.2 7.4 15.1 19.8 20.6
:South Grand River
Urich 5.9 6.7 12.2 19.9 27.6 29.1 29.4
:Big Creek
Blairstown 10.4 12.4 15.3 21.6 26.5 30.5 33.7
:Marais Des Cygnes River
Osawatomie 13.4 13.5 15.2 17.3 28.1 34.7 36.3
La Cygne 4.7 5.3 8.4 11.4 29.5 31.7 31.9
Trading Post 4.8 5.1 8.7 15.2 32.7 38.0 39.8
In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.
...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Falling Below Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 08/25/2018 - 11/23/2018
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Delaware River
Muscotah 2.1 2.1 2.0 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7
:Stranger Creek
Easton 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7
Tonganoxie 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5
:Kansas River
De Soto 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.1 4.1
:Tarkio River
Fairfax 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.4
:Nodaway River
Burlington Juncti 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.3
:102 River
Maryville 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.6
Rosendale 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
:Platte River
Agency 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.2
:Little Platte River
Smithville 12.2 12.2 12.2 12.2 12.1 12.1 12.1
:Platte River
Sharps Station 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.6
Platte City -2.3 -2.3 -2.5 -2.6 -2.6 -2.7 -2.7
:Blue River
Blue Ridge Boulev 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0
Bannister Road 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9
71 Highway 32.0 32.0 31.9 31.9 31.8 31.8 31.8
63rd Street 22.1 22.0 22.0 21.9 21.9 21.9 21.9
Colorado Avenue 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0
Stadium Drive 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2
40 Highway -2.0 -2.0 -2.0 -2.0 -2.0 -2.0 -2.0
17th Street -1.3 -1.3 -1.4 -1.4 -1.4 -1.4 -1.4
12th Street 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9
:Little Blue River
Lake City 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1
:Crooked River
Richmond 5.3 5.3 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9
:Thompson River
Trenton 10.2 10.2 10.2 10.2 10.2 10.2 10.2
:Grand River
Pattonsburg 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3
Gallatin 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5
Chillicothe 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7
Sumner 6.3 6.3 6.2 6.1 6.0 5.9 5.9
:Chariton River
Novinger -0.8 -0.8 -0.8 -0.8 -0.8 -0.8 -0.8
Prairie Hill 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7
:South Grand River
Urich 4.4 4.1 3.8 3.5 3.2 3.1 3.1
:Big Creek
Blairstown 9.1 9.1 8.9 8.5 8.0 8.0 8.0
:Marais Des Cygnes River
Osawatomie 13.2 13.2 13.1 13.1 13.1 13.1 13.1
La Cygne 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.0 3.8 3.8 3.8
Trading Post 4.1 4.1 4.0 3.8 3.6 3.6 3.6
These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service's advanced hydrologic prediction
service.
Visit our web site weather.gov/eax for more weather and water
information.