785 
FXUS64 KLUB 170722
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
222 AM CDT Fri Aug 17 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Upper level high pressure centered just west of the South Plains
will retreat slowly westward as an upper level short wave trough
crests the ridge over the Great Basin then dives southeastward
down the Central Plains toward the end of the weekend. This will
push a cold front southward through the southern High Plains.
Frontal timing will be key to precipitation chances along its
southward progression. GFS and ECMWF timing would favor some
precip mainly across the southern zones Sunday, although the
faster timing of the WRF-NAM has a good chance of being closer to
what verifies. Post-frontal air mass will likely not be able to
support thunderstorms until Tuesday night when high terrain
convection will have a chance to propagate southeastward into the
forecast area on northwest flow downstream from eastward-building
upper ridge. 

Before the front the pattern will continue to favor afternoon  
isolated thunderstorm development mainly across the northern half
of the forecast area with the potential for high terrain storms to
move into the forecast area during the overnight hours.

Temperatures through the forecast period will be near MOS values,
a bit above normal before the front, a bit below in the post- 
frontal air mass before another uptick midweek as the ridge builds
back over the region.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

07