276 
FXUS63 KILX 151044
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
544 AM CDT Wed Aug 15 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT Wed Aug 15 2018

Low pressure area in northeast KS will slowly move across northern
MO today and then into the northern part of the CWA tonight. This
will bring showers and storms to the CWA today and tonight. Models
differ on amount of coverage, with some models showing more
widespread precip and other HiRes models showing more scattered in
some areas and more solid in others. What does appear semi-clear
is that one area should move across southeast IL this morning
connected with the low level jet and then more should develop
across the rest of the CWA for this afternoon, moving across the
area through this evening. The southeast third of the CWA has been
placed in a slight risk for excessive rainfall due to high PW
values around 2 inches and the likely slow movement of the storms.
Locally heavy rainfall will be possible today in the east and
southeast parts of the CWA but since ground will be able to handle
it easily will not added in the grids. Afternoon temps are
expected to be below normal today given the extensive cloud cover
and precip. Expecting south winds of 10-15 mph today but becoming
light tonight as the low pressure area moves into the CWA. 

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT Wed Aug 15 2018

The low pressure area will be slow to move east Thursday so it,
along with the continued mid level trough, will continue to have 
an effect on the weather across the CWA. The chance of showers and
storms will continue Thurs and then Thurs night in the east and
southeast, though coverage may be more scattered in nature. 

A second mid level trough will rotate through the CWA Friday and
combine with a sfc front in the south to produce more showers and
storms across the area. The south part of the CWA will have the
greatest risk of precip due to the proximity of the sfc front.
After this trough, the chance of precip will diminish some but
still linger for Fri night and then in the southeast third of the
CWA for Sat. 

Will finally see a dry period Sat night and Sunday but the chance
of precip will return for the beginning of the week as another mid
level trough and associated sfc weather system moves across the
area for late Sunday night through Monday night. ECMWF is much
stronger with this system than the GFS but precip does appear
likely for Mon in some areas of the CWA. Dry weather appears
possible for Tuesday of next week. 

Afternoon temps through the extended will remain around normal
with overnight lows staying in the 60s most areas. Temps are
expected to cool again Mon and Tue in association with additional
cloud cover and precip.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 540 AM CDT Wed Aug 15 2018

Conditions are expected to deteriorate to MVFR and local IFR cigs
this morning as low level moisture increases from south to north
across the area ahead of a storm system to our southwest. This
weather system will also bring a band of showers and isold TSRA
north into parts of our area this morning with another threat for
showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into early this evening.
The threat for showers and storms should end later this evening
as the system tracks off to our northeast, which may bring about
a temporary clearing trend to the TAF area which will then lead
to the threat for at least some patchy dense fog and low stratus
by Thu morning. Southerly winds are expected through this forecast
period with speeds of 10 kts or less. 

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Auten
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Smith