237 
FXUS62 KMHX 150530
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
130 AM EDT Wed Aug 15 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will extend over the area from well offshore 
through the weekend with a weak trough over the central part of
the state. A cold front will approach from the north early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Rest of Tonight/...
As of 130 AM Wed...Iso showers have ended across the land zones,
and are now confined to the offshore waters, so have taken out
any remaining precip for the srn zones. No other changes.

Previous discussion... As of 940 PM Tuesday...Latest radar 
imagery shows some isolated showers still developing along and 
south of Hwy 70 this evening. Adjusted pops based on radar 
trends, and will keep iso/widely scattered mention for the next 
several hours as shortwave around upper low continues to 
approach from NW. Temps will remain muggy with lows near 70 
inland to mid 70s coast. Could see some patchy fog and stratus 
develop late tonight and early Wed morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Wednesday/...
As of 400 PM Tuesday...Little change indicated in surface 
pattern with offshore high/inland trough persisting. Aloft, 
shortwave will become sheared out as upper low finally gets 
kicked to E-NE. Latest models indicate some isolated convective 
activity possible along coast during morning and over southern 
half of area during afternoon mainly on sea breeze. Isolated 
severe pulse storm possible but less of a threat than this 
afternoon as shear will be less than 20 KT. Temp guidance 
supports highs a few degrees warmer from lower 90s inland to 
87-90 coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 330 AM Tuesday...Looking at a more typical summer pattern
much of the week with Atlantic high pressure ridging into the 
area while a lee trough persists across central NC. Resulting 
S-SW flow will result in normal temperatures and a diurnally 
driven convective regime across Eastern NC through the period 
though the models are still indicating drier than normal 
conditions Wed and Thu with better chances for precipitation 
returning Fri into the weekend. 

Wednesday through Thursday...The upper low lifts out and becomes
an open wave by Wed with the remnants of the weak front dissipating
over the area with deeper moisture pushing offshore producing
less favorable conditions for showers and storms. Also
contributing to the expected limited convective activity Wednesday
and Thursday is shortwave ridging aloft producing subsidence. 
Cannot rule out isolated showers developing along the sea breeze
each afternoon but guidance has trended drier with PoPs below 
Climo. Highs inland will be in the lower 90s with upper 80s 
coast. 

Friday through Monday...Shower and thunderstorm chances 
increase to climatological norms for the latter half of the week
into early next week as the upper ridge pushes east and is
replaced by a mean mid level trough resulting in more favorable
support for precipitation through the period. Temps expected to
be near normal with highs inland in the low 90s Fri cooling
slightly to the upper 80s over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short Term /through Wednesday/... 
As of 130 AM Wed...Similar airmass with little change from last
night, though so far little evidence of the widespread low
stratus and fog as seen this time last night, so held off on IFR
forecast for the terminals. Guid not indicating any widespread
FG or status at this time. Will forecast several hours of MVFR 
BV, though unexpected IFR may develop with T-TD depressions 
quite low. VFR will return Wed morning and prevail through the 
day. Isolated showers and storms to develop during the 
afternoon, but coverage will be sporadic so no mention of precip
in TAFs at this time. 

Long Term /Wednesday night through Sunday/... 
As of 330 AM Tuesday...Primarily VFR conditions are expected 
outside isolated showers and storms Wed and Thu. Showers and 
thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage to scattered 
Fri and Sat with brief periods of sub VFR conditions possible. 
Cannot rule out patchy late night/early morning fog each day 
bringing a brief period of reduced visibilities and possibly 
ceilings.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Through Wednesday/...
As of 940 PM Tuesday...Cyclical SW winds will persist during 
period with little change in surface pattern. Latest obs show SW
winds 15-20 kt with seas 3-5 ft south of Oregon Inlet and 5-15 
kt north and seas 2-3 ft. SW winds 10-20 kt will persist into 
overnight and then diminish to 5-15 KT in morning, increasing 
again Wed afternoon. 

Seas remaining 2-4 ft, highest south of Diamond Shoals, and 
lowest north of Oregon Inlet. Still could see ocnl 5 ft sets 
over the outer waters overnight.

Long Term /Wednesday night through Sunday/... 
As of 330 AM Tuesday...A trough of low pressure will remain 
stalled to the west with high pressure offshore into the 
weekend. S/SW winds are forecast to be mainly 10-20 kt through 
the period with seas 2-4 ft through Fri and 3-5 ft Sat.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM/CQD/TL
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JME/TL
MARINE...JME/JBM/CQD