475 
FXUS61 KBGM 121507
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1107 AM EDT Sun Aug 12 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Our wet pattern will continue as a low over Ohio slowly moves
east. This will bring showers and storms to the area, especially
Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
11 AM update...Local radars show only a few light showers in
northeast Pennsylvania. Morning stratus continues to slowly lift
which will allow for some destabilzation this afternoon with 
scattered convection. Activity will be most widespread from 
I81 east. Current forecast in good shape just minor adjustments.

previous disc...
Old boundary lingers in the south and east this morning. Some
light showers along it this morning, then with heating, more
widespread showers will break out, aided by a weak upper wave 
rotating through. Air is still juicy with pwats around 1.5", so 
any cells that develop will need to be watched, especially given
the wet antecedent conditions and poor steering flow. 

Vertically stacked upper low drifts slowly east to be over
central PA by Monday morning. This will enhance the SELY inflow
over the area, and help spread the rains further north and west
across the forecast area. POPs will increase into Monday with 
the added instability and moisture, and concern for additional
flooding issues increase as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
405 AM Update... 
Upper level low will slog from western PA to New England during
the short term period while gradually opening up. In the 
process of doing so, passing directly over our region, this will
yield continued showers and thunderstorms over our region. The 
Canadian model is slightly further south with its track, and 
slower in its opening up/evolution, and thus is able to infuse 
more Atlantic moisture resulting in higher rainfall potential. 

The ECMWF-GFS and now the NAM (which had been more like the
Canadian model) meanwhile are less able to tap subtropical 
moisture, but despite that still point to some potential for 
excessive rainfall because of the very wet antecedent 
conditions; especially Northeast PA and perhaps slightly into 
Southern Tier-Catskills NY. Precipitable water values are less
than recently; in the 1.3-1.6 inches range, yet warm cloud
depths will still be mostly greater than 10 kft and there will
be the instability offered by cooler air aloft from the upper
low. Also, as the low passes, there may be slow cell movement 
which also points a locally heavy rainfall potential. Though 
Monday night into Tuesday look quite wet, things will slow down 
late Tuesday into Tuesday night as drier air advects in behind 
the departing upper low/wave.

Though humid, temperatures will be little changed with lows in
the lower-mid 60s and highs in the mid 70s-lower 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
410 AM Update... 
The good news is that the pattern will finally budge from being
a very humid primarily southwest flow, to more of a west- 
northwest flow. That being said, it will also remain unsettled 
with occasional passages of fronts/waves and thus still some 
chances for showers and thunderstorms. As mentioned in the prior
discussion, late Thursday into Friday appears to be the 
greatest likelihood for additional rainfall. With much of the 
area not able to handle more rain, potential for locally 
excessive amounts will still need to be monitored.

Previous discussion...
Wednesday and Wednesday night: Perhaps the one dry day as the upper 
level low departs our region and the next cold front is still west 
of our region. The front may be close enough to still warrant a low 
chance for a thunderstorm Wednesday afternoon and evening in the 
Finger Lakes. With more sunshine, high temperatures should warm well 
into the 80's, blended guidance will likely be a touch cool if we 
break out into sunshine. Lows will still be warm in the 60's. 

Thursday through Saturday: Another cold front will pass through the 
region with an additional chance of showers and thunderstorms ahead 
of the front with sufficient lift and moisture ahead of it. The exact 
timing of the the frontal passage still varies somewhat on various 
ensemble members. For now, the highest chances look to be Thursday 
afternoon into Friday. Highs will be in the 80's with lows in the 
60's through Friday with cooler temperatures Saturday behind the 
front.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Abundant low level moisture and light winds have resulted in 
spotty IFR and LIFR overnight. Conditions will slowly improve to
VFR through the morning as mixing ensues. VFR conditions are 
expected to continue through the day despite isolated showers
and thunderstorms. There is not enough coverage is expected to 
include TRWs in the TAFs. Tonight, moisture and light winds once
again will result in MVFR ceilings to develop. Winds will be 
light through the period.


Outlook... 

Monday through Thursday...Restrictions likely in occasional 
showers/thunderstorms, especially Monday-Tuesday.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/RRM
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...MDP/MWG
AVIATION...DGM/DJN