907 
FXUS65 KABQ 012135
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
335 PM MDT Wed Aug 1 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure aloft remains over Arizona with an upper level
disturbance expected to drop from Utah southeastward into New Mexico.
This will produce a swath of additional showers and thunderstorms
over central and east central New Mexico into the evening hours with
some storms turning strong to severe with heavy downpours, gusty 
winds, and hail. Into Thursday, high pressure will inch toward the 
Arizona-New Mexico border with showers and thunderstorms favoring 
the central mountain chain and the Continental Divide before moving 
into some adjacent lower elevations. A similar thunderstorm trend 
will persist into Friday with temperatures hovering near to just 
slightly above average for early August. High pressure will slowly 
build over New Mexico this weekend, reducing storms somewhat, but not
completely inhibiting them.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The short wave disturbance can be seen on water vapor imagery over 
Utah, and should drop southeastward, pushing lift and an associated 
arc-shaped line of new convection into NM into the night. Storms 
will continue to have a tendency to be strong to severe, as 
prevailing surface winds are primarily exhibiting south southwesterly
components with the northerly flow in the mid troposphere, yielding 
increased bulk shear values. A quick glimpse of the radar and 
satellite verifies the high instability advertised by the models, and
convection should remain fairly active into the evening. Lower PWATs
are wrapping over the northern mountains of NM, but elsewhere PWATs 
range from about 1.0 to 1.5 inch and will add a locally heavy 
rainfall threat.

Into Thursday, the wave will have passed through offering a lull as
a brief wave of subsidence passes over, but into the late afternoon
and evening more storms are expected to fire along and west of the
central mountain chain. Drier PWATs will linger over the northern
mountains, and steering flow won't benefit from any speed increases
as the dome of high pressure nudges toward the AZ-NM border. This
would, however, begin to limit the severity of storms with bulk 
shear slowly decreasing. As far as temperatures are concerned, a 
persistence forecast seems suffice with a few localized areas 
observing premature temperature drops during storms. 

By Friday, the anticyclone jogs slightly south with a similar storm 
and temperature regime continuing over NM. Again, lowest PWATs would
be found over the northern mountains, but heftier values between 1.0
and 1.4 would be found in the southwestern mountains and near/just 
east of the central mountain chain. By the weekend high pressure 
expands some with a potential ill-defined centroid appearing in 
southwestern or south central NM. Mid-tropospheric pressure heights 
will not be much higher than they are now, possibly just a couple 
decameters higher, but this seems to be enough subsidence to reduce,
but not fully eliminate storm coverage.

After staying atop of NM for the first part of next week, the 
anticyclone should creep back over and even northwest of the Four 
Corners region by late Tuesday and Wednesday. This would make storm 
potential heavily reliant on back door frontal intrusions, which the 
GFS is already advocating, with one entering northeastern NM by 
Tuesday and shoving more low layer moisture westward into the evening
and on into Wednesday.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall have developed across 
much of the higher terrain this afternoon. This activity will merge 
into the Rio Grande Valley then become a large convective complex 
over eastern NM this evening. Upper level high pressure will drift 
east into western NM through Friday and bring steering flow to a 
halt. This will elevate the potential for flash flooding over the 
entire area, especially around burn scars. High temperatures will be 
near to slightly above normal in this pattern. 

Upper level high pressure will strengthen enough over the weekend to 
suppress the coverage of showers and storms. Temperatures will warm 
a few more degrees above normal with lower humidity and poor to fair
ventilation. The high center is shown to shift back to the northwest
early next week and allow deeper moisture to return to NM. This 
pattern will trend temperatures closer to normal with more heavy rain
possible. 

Guyer

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE 
Clouds forming over the high terrain and parts of eastern NM will
develop into SHRA/TSRA thru 21Z. Storm motions will be toward the
south-southeast around 10-15 kt. The focus today will start on the 
central mt chain as individual cells by 21Z then become small storm 
clusters before organizing into a large convective complex over the 
eastern plains. This large complex will move southeast thru 06Z and 
impact KTCC and KROW during the evening before dissipating to an area
of light rain and thick mid level clouds.

Guyer

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  65  95  66  93 /  10  10  20  10 
Dulce...........................  52  91  53  90 /  20  20  40  30 
Cuba............................  56  90  56  88 /  20  20  50  30 
Gallup..........................  58  92  58  89 /  20  30  30  20 
El Morro........................  55  85  55  83 /  30  40  60  30 
Grants..........................  58  90  59  88 /  20  30  50  30 
Quemado.........................  57  86  56  83 /  50  30  60  40 
Glenwood........................  65  91  63  87 /  40  50  50  30 
Chama...........................  49  83  50  82 /  40  60  50  30 
Los Alamos......................  60  85  63  83 /  40  30  50  50 
Pecos...........................  57  82  58  82 /  50  50  40  40 
Cerro/Questa....................  51  83  53  81 /  40  30  30  30 
Red River.......................  48  75  48  75 /  50  40  40  30 
Angel Fire......................  45  78  44  78 /  50  60  50  30 
Taos............................  51  88  53  87 /  30  30  30  30 
Mora............................  52  82  53  82 /  50  50  40  40 
Espanola........................  59  91  61  89 /  30  20  30  20 
Santa Fe........................  59  86  61  83 /  50  20  40  30 
Santa Fe Airport................  59  90  60  88 /  40  20  30  20 
Albuquerque Foothills...........  63  92  66  90 /  40  20  40  20 
Albuquerque Heights.............  68  93  69  92 /  40  20  30  20 
Albuquerque Valley..............  64  94  64  93 /  30  20  30  20 
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  66  93  68  92 /  40  20  30  20 
Los Lunas.......................  61  95  63  94 /  30  20  30  20 
Rio Rancho......................  66  94  67  93 /  40  20  40  20 
Socorro.........................  66  96  68  94 /  40  20  30  20 
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  59  86  60  85 /  50  20  50  30 
Tijeras.........................  57  89  60  88 /  40  20  50  30 
Moriarty/Estancia...............  55  91  56  89 /  60  20  30  20 
Clines Corners..................  57  87  58  85 /  60  20  40  30 
Gran Quivira....................  58  90  59  88 /  50  20  50  30 
Carrizozo.......................  63  89  64  89 /  50  20  40  10 
Ruidoso.........................  57  84  58  83 /  60  30  50  30 
Capulin.........................  54  83  57  83 /  50  20  20  50 
Raton...........................  53  88  56  87 /  40  20  30  30 
Springer........................  55  89  56  89 /  40  20  30  30 
Las Vegas.......................  55  83  55  83 /  50  40  40  30 
Clayton.........................  58  88  61  90 /  50  10  10  20 
Roy.............................  58  86  60  87 /  50  20  30  20 
Conchas.........................  64  94  66  95 /  70  10  20   5 
Santa Rosa......................  63  91  65  93 /  70  10  20  10 
Tucumcari.......................  63  96  67  97 /  60  10  10   5 
Clovis..........................  62  91  65  93 /  50  10  10   5 
Portales........................  63  93  65  95 /  50  10  10   0 
Fort Sumner.....................  66  93  68  95 /  60  10  20  10 
Roswell.........................  69  98  71  99 /  40  10  20   5 
Picacho.........................  64  89  66  90 /  50  20  20  20 
Elk.............................  61  86  62  85 /  40  40  40  30 

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

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