753 
FXUS62 KFFC 291144
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
744 AM EDT Sun Jul 29 2018


.UPDATE...

Updated for 12Z aviation discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 352 AM EDT Sun Jul 29 2018/ 

SHORT TERM /Today through Monday/...
The main feature for the forecast today is the stationary front 
draped across central Georgia, which will help to provide a focus 
for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon in the area. North of 
the front resides a pocket of drier air which is reflected in the 
low pops for portions of northern and western Georgia. In addition, 
a weak short wave looks to move from Alabama through north Georgia 
today, but with limited moisture not expecting much activity besides 
an increased chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms in the 
northeast mountains. 

For Monday, as the trough over the eastern US starts to deepen, we 
get into a more southwesterly flow and moisture starts to work its 
way back into the area. Along with it will be increased chances for 
showers and thunderstorms. Expecting a bit higher coverage over the 
area on Monday compared to what is expected today as the pattern 
begins to shift into what will be a more wet pattern. 

High temperatures through the short term period will be generally in 
the 80s and lower 90s across the area with lows in the 60s and lower 
70s. 

Reaves

LONG TERM /Monday Night through Saturday/...
Models continue in very good agreement with the long term solution. 
Although there are minor differences in depths of moisture with the 
short waves that move through the flow, the overall result is a wet 
period for the CWA. The H5 upper trough will deepen as a short wave 
digs into the lower Mississippi Valley. This trough will stall 
putting the CWA in a constant southwest flow and a moist feed from 
the Gulf of Mexico. While showers/tstorms could occur just about any 
time, they will be more organized with each impulse that moves in 
the southwest flow. Rainfall could be locally heavy with each 
impulse that moves across the CWA, but general rainfall amounts from 
Monday through Saturday will range from 2 to 3 inches with 3 to 4 
inches over the northeast mountains.

Overall confidence: HIGH

17

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z Update...
VFR cigs in place across the area and should persist through the 
afternoon. With limited chances for convection at the atl metro 
sites, decided to leave it out of TAF. Have included mention of 
TSRA at MCN and AHN with VCSH at CSG. Winds have been light and 
variable, with some sites out of the NE others NW. Overall, 
expecting winds to be from the NE with a brief shift to the NW 
possible around 18Z, and then E to SE through the rest of the 
afternoon. Overall, wind speeds will be light, less than 10 kts.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Medium on all elements. 

Reaves

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          90  71  88  72 /  30  30  40  60 
Atlanta         90  72  89  73 /  10  20  40  50 
Blairsville     83  65  82  66 /  30  30  50  70 
Cartersville    91  70  90  71 /  10  10  40  60 
Columbus        94  74  92  74 /  20  10  40  40 
Gainesville     88  70  87  71 /  20  20  40  60 
Macon           92  72  91  73 /  30  20  50  40 
Rome            91  69  91  71 /   5  10  40  60 
Peachtree City  92  70  91  72 /  10  10  40  50 
Vidalia         90  73  89  74 /  70  50  50  40 

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Reaves
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...Reaves