981 
FXUS63 KILX 262029
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
329 PM CDT Thu Jul 26 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT Thu Jul 26 2018

Latest surface analysis this afternoon shows a cold front
continuing to progress southeastward through the far SE portion
of the CWA. Modest instability with MLCAPE values of 1000-2000
J/kg remain in place along and ahead of the front, with deep layer
shear between 30-40 kts, though the cold front is outracing the
best shear. A few isolated showers/storms have managed to develop
along I-70 over the past hour, and there is still about a 2-3 
hour window before 00z tonight where continued development and
strengthening is possible. No organized severe weather is
expected... a few stronger cells could produce some small hail and
locally heavy rain. 

The cold front will move out of the region by late this evening, 
and much cooler air will settle into the area as a relatively deep
trough remains over the northern Great Lakes. Guidance cools off 
the area quickly tonight, dropping lows into the upper 50s. High 
temperatures on Friday will stall in the upper 70s to low 80s. 

&&

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT Thu Jul 26 2018

Forecast guidance has kept the overall pattern for the weekend and
next week has been relatively consistent over the past several
runs. Two large upper ridges, centered over the Mountain West and
North Atlantic, are likely to remain in place. Longwave trough
will stay centered over the upper Midwest/Great Lakes, with
several shortwaves providing chances for rain. First wave will
move into the area Saturday afternoon into Sunday, with rain 
chances focused over the central/western portion of the CWA. 12z 
guidance is on the drier side through Saturday night, but current 
forecast keeps widespread chance of PoPs in the forecast. 

By Sunday night into Monday... the trough will begin to dig into 
the Central Plains and will slowly move east. Repeated rain
chances are expected through the week with this system, though
there are some wide-ranging solutions regarding the evolution of
the trough. GFS remains on the slower, more amplified side with a
surface low tracking through IL Tuesday night into Wednesday. The
GEM is much more progressive, with the ECM falling somewhere in
between. Current forecast favors the slower solutions, with
chances for rain continuing into Tuesday. Some isolated
showers/storms are possible through the end of the forecast period
as large scale pattern keeps ridge axis well to our west.
Temperatures throughout the forecast period will likely remain
near/below average, with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s, and
lows in the low 60s. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Thu Jul 26 2018

A weak cold front was pushing se toward a Paris to Mattoon to
Shelbyville line early this afternoon, and will push thru
southeast IL during mid afternoon to early evening, exiting
southeast of Lawrenceville by sunset. Radar mosaic shows a very
thin line of weak echo returns along a Danville to Taylorville 
line at 1240 pm, and feel this line will be the effective 
boundary for isolated to scattered convection to develop during 
the afternoon. This convection should stay se of central IL 
airports and will be closest to DEC and CMI next 1-2 hours. 
Decided to keep these airports dry but will watch closely thru mid
afternoon. LAPs CAPES have risen to 1500-2200 j/kg from Rantoul 
to Litchfield southeast while wind shear values of 35-45 kts 
prevailed over central IL this afternoon, highest over east 
central IL. So convection likely to develop soon along and ahead 
of cold front and mainly impact southeast IL, areas from Danville 
to Tuscola to Shelbyville se. MVFR broken ceilings with cumulus 
cloud bases as low as 2.5-3k ft possible next 1-2 hours along I-72
otherwise VFR conditions to prevail next 24 hours. Fair skies 
expected tonight, with few to scattered cumulus clouds with bases 
around 5k ft after 15Z/Fri. WNW to NW winds near 10 kts behind 
cold front (with few gusts of 15-17 kts at BMI) to diminish to 
around 5 kts after sunset. NW winds 5-10 kts expected Friday 
morning. 

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hiris/07 
LONG TERM...Hiris/07 
AVIATION...07