600 
FXUS61 KCAR 190117
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
917 PM EDT Wed Jul 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build across the region through Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
9:17 pm update: Clear and comfortably cool across northern and 
eastern Maine overnight as high pressure builds into the area 
from the Great Lakes. Other than some minor updates to the 
temperature, dew point, and wind grids no changes are planned at
this time.

Previous discussion:
High pressure will build across the region tonight through 
Thursday. The remaining diurnal clouds will dissipate this 
evening, leaving clear skies overnight. Mostly sunny skies are 
expected Thursday. Low temperatures tonight will range from the 
mid 40s to around 50 north, to the lower to mid 50s Downeast. 
High temperatures Thursday will range from the upper 70s to 
around 80 north, to around 80 to the lower 80s Downeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure will slide east behind an upper level
trough providing dry conditions through the short term. Sky
conditions will be mostly sunny and clear with mid to upper 
level clouds building Friday morning/afternoon in the far 
northern zones. Sunny skies and return flow behind the high will
build inland temperatures Friday into the mid to upper 80s. 
Towards the end of the short term, fog may want to be considered
along the coast as onshore flow builds.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Long term focuses on a humid and potentially very wet period 
for much of Maine.

Surface high will begin to shuffle to the NE as a upper low cuts
into the Great Lakes. Saturday will remain dry over the area, 
but clouds begin to thicken and lower as a subtropical low 
tracks along the east coast, approaching from the south. Both
GFS and ECMWF agree on ample moisture being drawn over New 
England during the long term, but disagree on interactions 
between the cut off upper low and the location of central 
pressure from the subtropical low. The ECMWF takes the coastal 
storm inland over New York, providing a more north-south 
oriented stream of moisture into Maine Sunday night and Monday. 
The GFS pushes the remnants into Nova Scotia and has a more NE 
to SW positive tilt to the flow of moisture.

With the moist airmass in place and decent PWAT values, have 
kept thunderstorm chances in afternoon and evening timeframes 
Sunday through the beginning of next week. The storms could 
enhance local rainfall amounts.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions are expected tonight through 
Thursday. Very local patchy fog possible for an hour or two
before sunrise in the northern river valleys that could briefly
lower the vsby at either KPQI or KHUL. 

SHORT TERM: Friday, no large impacts to aviation operations 
expected, VFR. Fog potential along the coast and Bangor region 
beginning Saturday night off return flow from the exiting high 
pressure. Sunday and Monday, greater moisture approaches with 
thunderstorm chances in the afternoon and evening hours.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas are expected to remain below small craft 
advisory levels tonight though Thursday.

SHORT TERM: Seas below SCA through Saturday. Approaching low
pressure with long SE fetch will build waves Saturday night into
Monday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...CB/Norcross
Short Term...Cornwell/Dumont
Long Term...Cornwell/Dumont
Aviation...CB/Norcross/Cornwell/Dumont
Marine...CB/Norcross/Cornwell/Dumont