971 
FXUS64 KMEG 172012
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
312 PM CDT Tue Jul 17 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Showers and thunderstorms had started to develop across the
area...with isolated coverage at the moment. Nothing currently was
reaching strong or severe intensity. Temperatures were in the low
90's area wide with heat indices ranging from 100F to 107F. A 
heat advisory remains in effect through 8pm along and west of the 
Mississippi River.

For tonight through Thursday...weak cold front across the region 
will continue to slowly track south and wash out this period. 
Satellite showing the drier air/edge of cu line lagging well 
behind across southern Illinois and Indiana. This drier airmass 
will move into the northeast counties late tonight...but will take
all day tomorrow to reach the TN/MS border. dewpoints will fall
from the mid 70's to the upper 60's. From this convection chances
will shift to the southwestern counties where dewpoints in the 
70's will hold fast. Initiation for storms though will be over the
Central Plains..tracking southeast across Arkansas...and 
potentially reaching central Mississippi before dying out. So have
kept PoPs highest in the southwest counties. Temperatures 
tomorrow and Thursday will climb into the upper 80s and low 
90s...with heat indices ranging from the low 100s west to mid 90s 
east.

Friday through next Tuesday...models show a day of heat building 
back into the region Friday ahead of sinking upper low out of the
Midwest. A heat advisory for portions of the area may be needed. 
Lift from the descending low will provide for more scattered 
convection with the highest rain chances in the east during the 
evening hours. The low is progged to send a second cold front 
southeast on Saturday as it slides towards the Mid-Atlantic
states. A bigger push of drier air will result making for a more
pleasant end to the weekend...and start of the next work week.
Temperatures will still remain seasonal...but heat indices will 
finally fall to below 95F area wide. Modifications to the drier 
airmass will start Tuesday...with rain chances also increasing.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF cycle

Most areas will see VFR conditions this afternoon with a few
locations such as KMKL with MVFR ceilings. VFR conditions will
return to the entire forecast area by this evening. Scattered
thunderstorms are just beginning to develop and will continue
into the early evening hours. Patchy fog may develop overnight.
Winds will be light and variable for the entire forecast period.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Clay-Craighead-
     Crittenden-Cross-Greene-Lawrence-Lee AR-Mississippi-
     Phillips-Poinsett-Randolph-St. Francis.

MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Dunklin-Pemiscot.

MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Coahoma-DeSoto-
     Tunica.

TN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Dyer-Lauderdale-
     Shelby-Tipton.

&&

$$