549 
FXUS63 KFGF 140451
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1151 PM CDT Fri Jul 13 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1151 PM CDT Fri Jul 13 2018

No changes.

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday) 
Issued at 253 PM CDT Fri Jul 13 2018

Few CU will dissipate this evening and skies clear overnight with
light winds as they change direction from west to south overnight.
Saturday will see south-southwest wind pick up thru the day, with
highest gusts in the Devils Lake basin where wind gusts to 30 kts
are likely. A cold front will advance east and be located just
east of Brandon to just west of Bottineau at 00z Sun. No
precipitation is expected in our fcst area thru 00z Sun. Very warm
ahead of the front and did boost temps a couple degrees above
blended guidance with highs in E ND and the nrn RRV around 90.
Surface dew pts in the 60s will yield heat indices just a bit
above the actual temperature, but well short of heat advisory
criteria, which is 100. 

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Fri Jul 13 2018

Saturday night and Sunday... A cold front is expected to move across 
North Dakota and Minnesota Saturday night into Sunday. Brining with 
it the potential for rain showers and thunderstorms. High 
temperatures during the day around 90 will provide an area of 
instability and potential for thunderstorms along the front. CAPE 
values in the model vary but are generally greater than 1000 J/kg 
with some models like the GFS much higher near 2500 J/kg. Moderate 
shear will be present, mainly near the international border, of 
around 30 to 40 knots of bulk shear. This could provide a chance for 
some severe weather Saturday evening or night in northeast North 
Dakota. Moisture is a question at this point as the GFS is much 
wetter than the NAM and ECMWF. A GFS forecast likely would produce 
thunderstorms and severe weather while the lower dew points in the 
NAM and ECMWF forecast would be much less favorable for any 
convection to occur.

Sunday night through Tuesday... Surface high pressure moves in 
behind the cold front Sunday night through Tuesday. This will 
provide us with quiet and cooler weather with high temperatures in 
the upper 70s to low 80s. 

Wednesday through Friday... The pattern looks to change on Wednesday 
as a shortwave passing through the Northern Plains. Deterministic 
models suggest that shower and thunderstorm chances will be best 
near the South Dakota border on Wednesday. Chance for rain better 
later in the week for the northern Red River Valley and Devils Lake 
Basin as a cold front moves through.  

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday) 
Issued at 253 PM CDT Fri Jul 13 2018

Few CU will dissipate this evening and skies clear overnight with
light winds as they change direction from west to south overnight.
Saturday will see south-southwest wind pick up thru the day, with
highest gusts in the Devils Lake basin where wind gusts to 30 kts
are likely. A cold front will advance east and be located just
east of Brandon to just west of Bottineau at 00z Sun. No
precipitation is expected in our fcst area thru 00z Sun. Very warm
ahead of the front and did boost temps a couple degrees above
blended guidance with highs in E ND and the nrn RRV around 90.
Surface dew pts in the 60s will yield heat indices just a bit
above the actual temperature, but well short of heat advisory
criteria, which is 100. 

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Fri Jul 13 2018

Saturday night and Sunday... A cold front is expected to move across 
North Dakota and Minnesota Saturday night into Sunday. Brining with 
it the potential for rain showers and thunderstorms. High 
temperatures during the day around 90 will provide an area of 
instability and potential for thunderstorms along the front. CAPE 
values in the model vary but are generally greater than 1000 J/kg 
with some models like the GFS much higher near 2500 J/kg. Moderate 
shear will be present, mainly near the international border, of 
around 30 to 40 knots of bulk shear. This could provide a chance for 
some severe weather Saturday evening or night in northeast North 
Dakota. Moisture is a question at this point as the GFS is much 
wetter than the NAM and ECMWF. A GFS forecast likely would produce 
thunderstorms and severe weather while the lower dew points in the 
NAM and ECMWF forecast would be much less favorable for any 
convection to occur.

Sunday night through Tuesday... Surface high pressure moves in 
behind the cold front Sunday night through Tuesday. This will 
provide us with quiet and cooler weather with high temperatures in 
the upper 70s to low 80s. 

Wednesday through Friday... The pattern looks to change on Wednesday 
as a shortwave passing through the Northern Plains. Deterministic 
models suggest that shower and thunderstorm chances will be best 
near the South Dakota border on Wednesday. Chance for rain better 
later in the week for the northern Red River Valley and Devils Lake 
Basin as a cold front moves through.  

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1151 PM CDT Fri Jul 13 2018

A few cirrus clouds make all sites VFR and they will remain so
throughout the period. Winds will be the main concern, with light
and variable winds picking up out of the south by mid-day. Gusts
above 20 kts can be expected at all locations except KBJI. Winds
will decrease again late in the period, with some shifting to the
northwest at KDVL as a cold front comes into the area. Some storms
are possible along this front, but not confident enough to include
in the TAFs at this point. 

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...Riddle
LONG TERM...NC
AVIATION...JR