National Weather Service Text Product
AFOS product AFDILX
Dates interpreted at 00:00 UTCDisplaying AFOS PIL: AFDILX
Product Timestamp: 2018-07-07 23:00 UTC
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268 FXUS63 KILX 072300 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 600 PM CDT Sat Jul 7 2018 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday) ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT Sat Jul 7 2018 High pressure anchored over the northeast and the Midwest is keeping the weather clear, and expect another quiet night, with temps in the low 60s/upper 50s. Tomorrow, the warm and muggy airmass pushed to the SW will start to move back up into Central IL. Highs tomorrow should be in the low to mid 80s in most locations, with dewpoints coming back up into the 60s by the end of the day. Heat index will come back up as well, mid to upper 80s/near 90. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday) ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT Sat Jul 7 2018 By Sunday night, the warming trend is well under way and lows only drop into the mid 60s again. Much of the CONUS is without a strong pattern aloft, with the waves rippling through a more northerly stream. As such, the GFS and ECMWF have been consistent with moving Gulf moisture further inland into the mid Mississippi River Valley. The GFS was much further north, and the NAM is starting to look a bit like the GFS with Monday night in the southern half of the state. At the same time, a deep wave moves through the northern stream, diving into the Hudson Bay region and amplifying the pattern. As that cooler air moves into the Midwest aloft, that warm and muggy air is moving in from the south. When the weak front associated with that wave moves into the region, the GFS is firing a round of precip for Tuesday afternoon/evening. At this point, should that more unstable airmass materialize, it is possible that the GFS might be keying in on the solution. THe 12Z ECMWF is showing signs of the same, but the NAM does not. So, pops for Monday for the southern half of the state...northerly extent is the question. The front on Tuesday not showing up in the forecast yet, due to inconsistency, but may be one of the next shifts in the forecast. Beyond that, small slight chances are peppered through the extended, but is more of a set up for afternoon heating driven showers than anything synoptic under a massive ridge. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 600 PM CDT Sat Jul 7 2018 VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites next 24hrs. Expecting clear skies next 24hrs with northeast winds becoming variable tomorrow. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...HJS LONG TERM...HJS AVIATION...Auten