AFOS product AFDILX
Dates interpreted at 00:00 UTC

Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDILX
Product Timestamp: 2018-07-07 23:00 UTC

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268 
FXUS63 KILX 072300
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
600 PM CDT Sat Jul 7 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT Sat Jul 7 2018
High pressure anchored over the northeast and the Midwest is
keeping the weather clear, and expect another quiet night, with
temps in the low 60s/upper 50s. Tomorrow, the warm and muggy
airmass pushed to the SW will start to move back up into Central
IL. Highs tomorrow should be in the low to mid 80s in most
locations, with dewpoints coming back up into the 60s by the end
of the day. Heat index will come back up as well, mid to upper
80s/near 90.  

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT Sat Jul 7 2018
By Sunday night, the warming trend is well under way and lows only
drop into the mid 60s again. Much of the CONUS is without a strong
pattern aloft, with the waves rippling through a more northerly
stream. As such, the GFS and ECMWF have been consistent with
moving Gulf moisture further inland into the mid Mississippi River
Valley. The GFS was much further north, and the NAM is starting to
look a bit like the GFS with Monday night in the southern half of
the state. At the same time, a deep wave moves through the
northern stream, diving into the Hudson Bay region and amplifying
the pattern. As that cooler air moves into the Midwest aloft, that
warm and muggy air is moving in from the south. When the weak
front associated with that wave moves into the region, the GFS is
firing a round of precip for Tuesday afternoon/evening. At this
point, should that more unstable airmass materialize, it is
possible that the GFS might be keying in on the solution. THe 12Z
ECMWF is showing signs of the same, but the NAM does not. So, pops
for Monday for the southern half of the state...northerly extent
is the question. The front on Tuesday not showing up in the
forecast yet, due to inconsistency, but may be one of the next
shifts in the forecast. Beyond that, small slight chances are 
peppered through the extended, but is more of a set up for 
afternoon heating driven showers than anything synoptic under a 
massive ridge.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 600 PM CDT Sat Jul 7 2018

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites next 24hrs. Expecting
clear skies next 24hrs with northeast winds becoming variable
tomorrow. 

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Auten