047 
FXUS63 KILX 272004
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
304 PM CDT Wed Jun 27 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT Wed Jun 27 2018

Light northwest winds at the surface behind the front that moved
through overnight continued through the day with SC low clouds due
to daytime heating with plenty of low level moisture. Boundary
lingers over southern IL and into MO. Moisture channel satellite
data shows upper system over the eastern great Lakes moving off to
the east. 

Short range models begin to wave the front back northward over MO
tonight, as the upper level ridge begins to build eastward into
the mid MS valley. Models trigger scattered convection on the
boundary late tonight, over east central MO and southwest IL. Low
level flow appears to be weak and will he building ridge aloft,
the instability is weak also. There is enough low level convergenc
on the front to trigger scattered convection and so kept the going
trend of isold to widely scattered convection in the southwest
sections. Before 12z, most of pcpn southwest of area, and after
12z in the morning, some chance pops in the southwest areas, but
will best chances to the southwest of CWA. Thursday afternoon,
chance pops over southern IL with widely scattered over southern
CWA. 

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT Wed Jun 27 2018

Thursday night is when the ridge building aloft really begins.
This warming at all levels continues into Friday and so with the
warming temperatures and high dew points, the apparent temps on
Friday will push into the 105-110 range, which will be the case
again on Saturday. Will therefore issue heat advisory for region
for Friday through Saturday. 

Models bring a shortwave across the northern plains on Sunday that
tries to flatten down the upper ridge and bring some scattered 
pcpn on Sunday and not quite as hot conditions due to the clouds
in the region. This same trend seems to be the case for early next
week, as weak upper systems seem to be triggering a lot of clouds
with the significant moisture in the region. This will keep highs
around 90, but very humid for the first few days of the new
work week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Wed Jun 27 2018

SC clouds over the region today, post frontal as seen in visible
satellite data. Northwest winds will diminish this evening. With
ample moisture in low levels, will have some mvfr visibiblities
briefly around sunrise. Winds to be southeast on Thursday 
morning, but pcpn should be south of TAF sites. 


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 10 AM Friday to 8 PM CDT Saturday for 
ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Goetsch
LONG TERM...Goetsch
AVIATION...Goetsch