372 
FXUS64 KTSA 192319
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
619 PM CDT Tue Jun 19 2018

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions will prevail through most of the first half of the
TAF period. Cigs will lower to MVFR categories at most sites in 
the 09-13z time period, and may lift back to VFR by late morning. 
Rain and thunder chances will increase late in the period, with 
MVFR cigs and vsbys expected for the remainder of the period where
thunderstorms occur. 



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 321 PM CDT Tue Jun 19 2018/ 

DISCUSSION...
Isolated showers currently ongoing across the forecast area with 
any late afternoon convection expected to wane after sunset. 
Attention will turn to an expanding area of convection across the 
High Plains with one or more MCSs likely to emerge into the 
overnight hours. Trends in short term solutions have been 
consistent on weakening the storms into NE OK early Wednesday. The
remnant outflow boundary and possible MCV presence will likely 
spark renewed convection across the forecast area during the day 
Wednesday. A more unstable airmass is likely to develop along the 
aforementioned sfc boundary with initial storms having severe 
potential. The instability axis may not expand too far eastward 
thus an early peak in severe potential is possible. 

The deepening closed mid level low over the central Plains will
drop southward and push a synoptic scale frontal boundary through
the region Wednesday night. Precip chances will also shift
eastward with Thursday being mostly dry and pleasant and for late
June.

Flow aloft will remain seasonably strong from late week through
early next week and likely act upon the sfc frontal boundary
providing several opportunities for storm complexes to track
across the region. Instability is also likely to become rather
impressive along the frontal zone which will support some severe
potential with each potential round of storms. Upper ridging
strengthens early next week returning hot temps and lower rain
chances.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$


AVIATION.....23