189 
FXUS64 KLIX 061412
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
912 AM CDT Wed Jun 6 2018

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

This morning's sounding was routine with no problems encountered.
After a day of widespread heavy rain and strong to severe storms,
the atmosphere remains on the moist side with PW of 1.51".
Vertical analysis resembles a moist adiabatic profile, with weak
winds 500mb to the surface. Little in the way of early morning 
instability, and saturated in the boundary layer with patchy fog 
at the surface. Much drier air resides above 500mb with little in
the way of upper-level cloud cover. KLG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 342 AM CDT Wed Jun 6 2018/ 

SHORT TERM...

Increasing negative vorticity advection and subsidence in the wake
of a departing shortwave trough will result in a warmer and drier
weather pattern for today. Initially, areas of fog that have
develop during the overnight hours will be quick to clear by mid-
morning. By late this morning, mostly sunny skies are expected to
be in place across much of the forecast area. In the offshore 
waters, lingering morning showers and thunderstorms should give 
way to clearing skies by the afternoon hours. The combination of
both drier air and subsidence will result in warmer temperatures 
in the lower 90s today. Tonight will see high pressure take firm 
control of the Gulf South. Clear skies and mild temperatures in 
the upper 60s and lower 70s can be expected. Some patchy fog may 
also develop over inland areas as boundary layer winds are 
expected to remain light. 

Deep layer ridging will continue to intensify tomorrow and remain
in place through Friday. Temperatures will continue to warm as
a deep pool of drier air aloft along with ample subsidence stifles
most cloud development. Highs should easily climb into the middle
90s both Thursday and Friday, and overnight lows should dip into 
the upper 60s and lower 70s Thursday night. With the ridge over 
the region, the chances for rain will be very limited. At most, an
isolated thunderstorm may try to develop along the 
seabreeze/lakebreeze boundaries that form each day. POP of 20 
percent or less is in the forecast to reflect this very limited 
risk of rain.

LONG TERM...

The ridge axis extending across the Gulf South will begin to shift
back to the west toward the Southern Plains over the weekend. However,
the airmass will remain fairly dry in the mid and upper levels of
the atmosphere. MLCAPE values should increase to around 1000 J/KG
mainly due to steepening mid-level lapse rates as temperatures 
aloft begin to cool slightly. With a slight increase in
instability expected, rain chances will increase slightly to 
around 20 to 30 percent. POP would be higher, but the deep pool 
of drier air aloft will limit overall convective development both 
Saturday and Sunday. Highs will remain warm in the low to mid 90s
each day. 

By Monday and Tuesday, the ridge axis should continue to push
further west, and the area will be opened up to a northerly flow
pattern in the mid and upper levels. This pattern will allow for
weak shortwave impulses to slide through the region each day, and
serve as a forcing mechanism for increased convective activity.
The mid and upper levels will also see moisture advect in with
these upper level shortwave features, and this will push
precipitable water values back to more normal levels for June.
This will further support increased convective activity, and have
went with chance POP of 30 to 40 percent for Monday and Tuesday.
Temperatures should also moderate a bit due to the increase in
humidity and shower and thunderstorm activity. Highs should rise
into the upper 80s and lower 90s both days. Overnight lows will
actually increase a bit into the low to mid 70s due to higher 
dewpoints across the region.

AVIATION...

Mainly VFR conditions are forecast for the general prevailing 
conditions through this taf cycle. Most TSRA should stay along the 
coast and offshore, so coastal terminals will have a slightly better 
chance of receiving some activity but there shouldn't be as many 
around today. Those TSRA that do develop will be capable of 
producing brief very low VSBY in torrential downpours, lower CIGS 
and gusty winds.

MARINE...

Strongest thunderstorms and the majority of thunderstorm 
activity will be found along and offshore today. This will slowly 
diminish through Thursday and remain isolated to scattered 
through the remainder of the forecast. A generally weak flow 
pattern is expected the remainder of the week.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS code: GREEN
Deployed: none.
Activation: none.
Activities: none.

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend 
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
         high visibility event; Marginal risk severe or excessive rain.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or 
         advisory issuances; radar support for Slight risk severe or 
         excessive rain. 
Orange = High Impacts; Enhanced risk severe; nearby tropical events;
         HazMat or other large episodes.
Red    = Full engagement for Moderate to high risk of severe and/or    
 	     direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  91  66  94  69 /   0   0   0   0 
BTR  90  68  94  71 /   0   0  10  10 
ASD  90  69  93  72 /   0   0   0   0 
MSY  88  73  93  74 /  10   0  10   0 
GPT  88  71  91  73 /  10   0  10  10 
PQL  89  68  92  72 /  10   0  10  10 

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$