244 
FXUS64 KLZK 022322 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
622 PM CDT Sat Jun 2 2018

.AVIATION...
Scattered showers/storms will move across the area in the next few
hours, which will temporarily restrict conditions. Otherwise, vfr
conditions will prevail. 
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 308 PM CDT Sat Jun 2 2018)
SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Monday Night

Some isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA have developed over the past 
couple hrs over NWRN portions of the CWA...activity forming just 
ahead of an approaching cold front located just NW of AR early this 
afternoon. This activity will continue to develop and spread SE over 
the rest of the afternoon into the evening hrs as the cold front 
drops SE into the state. Expect isolated to scattered strong to SVR 
storms...with large hail and damaging winds as the primary hazards. 
Temps ahead of the convection have warmed into the upper 80s to  mid 
90s...with dewpts in the low to mid 70s. This results in high 
instability given the cooling temps aloft...with forecast CAPE in 
the 3-4k+ CAPE range. Some locally heavy rainfall may result in some 
isolated flash flooding as well...but not expected widespread heavy 
rainfall given the convection is moving SE and not expecting much 
training. 

The high temps and dewpts have also resulted into high heat index 
values...with observed values across the SERN quarter of the state 
over 105 in many spots for heat index values. As a result...will 
keep the Heat Adv in effect for these areas through 00Z. Some 
isolated areas outside the adv may see high heat adv values over 105
..but the convection looks to arrive soon enough to see some relief 
over the next hr or two. 

By late this evening into the overnight period...expect the 
convection to move south and SE of the state...with SFC high 
pressure moving towards AR. This will result in much lower dewpts and 
cooler temps for the majority of the short term period. Expect highs 
on Sun and Mon to only reach the upper 70s to low 90s. Lows by Sun 
morning will drop down into the upper 50s to mid 60s across the NWRN 
half of the CWA...to the upper 60s to mid 70s across the SE half. By 
Mon morning...the SFC high will settle over the state...with lows 
dropping down into the mid 50s to mid 60s. A new upper shortwave 
trough will approach the state by Mon night...with some increased 
chances for SHRA/TSRA for WRN sections of the state to end the short 
term period.

LONG TERM...Tuesday Through Saturday

An amplifying ridge of high pressure centered to our west over the 
Texas Panhandle will dominate the long term forecast. A few areas of 
enhanced vorticity embedded in the mean flow will rotate through the 
state and provide rain chances through next week. 

Initially, northerly flow in the mid and upper levels will allow 
drier and cooler air to linger for a few days. However, a stalled 
frontal boundary to our south will allow showers and thunderstorms 
to impact the southern and western portions of the state. Otherwise, 
the next chance of rain will be later in the week when the 
aforementioned boundary lifts northward through the area. This will 
also help bring a warmer and more moist airmass back to the state. 

High temperatures will quickly go from the mid to upper 80s, to 
lower to mid 90s by mid week, with Heat Index values in the upper 
90s to near 100 degrees by next weekend. Lows will also steadily 
rise, with lower to mid 60s overnight becoming lower to mid 70s.
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR Arkansas-Bradley-
Calhoun-Cleveland-Dallas-Desha-Drew-Grant-Jefferson-Lincoln-
Lonoke-Monroe-Prairie-Pulaski-Saline-White-Woodruff.
&&

$$

Aviation...57