324 
FXUS64 KFWD 272351
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
651 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018


.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/  

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites tonight through
Monday, as weak surface high pressure ridging persists across the
region. Today's late afternoon cumulus field should dissipate by 
sunset, leaving clear skies tonight. With abundant low level 
moisture in place, another deck of scattered cumulus will re- 
form after 16z Monday. Modest lower and mid-level subsidence 
should persist across the area, which should drastically limit the
development of any afternoon convection Monday. 

Light east winds tonight should veer to the southeast by 15z
Monday, with speeds ticking up to 6-9 kts.  

Bradshaw

&&


.SHORT TERM... /Issued 344 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018/
/Through Tonight/

North/Central Texas remains beneath a narrow upper ridge axis
positioned between a deep upper low to the west and Subtropical 
Storm Alberto to the east. The ridge's associated subsidence has
mostly inhibited development of any showers and storms across 
the area so far today. However, this is not the case for our 
southeastern zones which remain within an axis of higher moisture 
and are far enough removed from the upper ridge's influence. 
Isolated showers and an occasional storm are expected roughly 
southeast of Athens to Hearne through this evening before activity
dissipates with loss of heating. Farther north and west, the 
cumulus field appears too stable/suppressed to support any 
shower/storm development this afternoon. Otherwise, temperatures 
will climb a few degrees shy of record values this afternoon, but 
are still abnormally hot for late May. Lows will only fall into 
the low/mid 70s overnight with a light ESE wind.

-Stalley

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 344 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018/
/Monday through Sunday/

As an upper level low that is currently over the Intermountain 
West lifts northeastward toward the northern Plains and "Alberto"
moves northward into the southeastern U.S., mid-level heights are
expected to fall a little across North and Central Texas on 
Monday. This should result in Monday's high temperatures being a 
couple of degrees lower than today at most locations. Highs will 
range from the lower 90s east to upper 90s west. Heat Index values
will reach the mid 90s to 101 degrees. Lows Monday night will be
in the upper 60s to mid 70s under mostly clear skies.

It will be hot and rain-free across the region again on Tuesday.
Temperatures may be a degree or two higher than Monday with lower
90s east expected across the east to slightly over 100 degrees 
across the northwest. Lows Tuesday night will be in the lower to
middle 70s. 

The upper level ridge is expected to build northeastward across
the region mid to late week. This will result in continued rain-
free weather with a slight warming trend. Highs will be in the
lower to middle 90s east to 102 to 103 degrees west on Wednesday
and mid to upper 90s east to 106 northwest by Saturday. Heat Index
values will be 98 to 107 degrees mid to late week, so a Heat
Advisory may be needed later this week for parts of the forecast
area.

A slight cool-down may occur late weekend into the early part of 
next week as a couple of shortwaves move across the Plains and 
break down the northern part of the ridge. The GFS even indicates
that a weak front may try to move into North Texas Sunday, but 
the ECMWF and Canadian are not so optimistic.


58

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    74  94  74  96  76 /   5   0   0   0   0 
Waco                73  96  73  98  74 /   5   5   0   0   0 
Paris               70  92  70  92  72 /   5   0   0   5   5 
Denton              72  94  72  97  75 /   5   0   0   0   5 
McKinney            71  92  72  94  74 /   5   0   0   0   5 
Dallas              76  95  77  97  79 /   5   0   0   0   0 
Terrell             72  95  72  96  74 /   5   5   0   0   0 
Corsicana           73  93  72  95  73 /   5   5   0   0   0 
Temple              72  95  72  96  74 /   5   5   0   0   0 
Mineral Wells       72  95  70  98  73 /   5   0   0   0   5 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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