030 
FXUS63 KEAX 060827
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
327 AM CDT Sun May 6 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 327 AM CDT SUN MAY 6 2018

A couple rounds of showers will be possible today in association 
with a couple surface features. First, this morning, a surface will 
move through the area bringing the chance for scattered showers. A 
second round of storms will be possible across the southern CWA this 
afternoon as a cold front moves through the area. Otherwise, partly 
cloudy conditions are expected with highs in the lower 80s. Tonight, 
a surface ridge of high pressure will build into the region 
providing light winds and clear skies which will allow temperatures 
to drop into the low to mid 50s. High pressure will remain in 
control on Monday providing copious sunshine and light winds. Expect 
highs to range into the mid to upper 70s. High pressure will shift 
east by Tuesday morning. A few showers will try and enter the 
western CWA Tuesday morning but, dry air may win out and keep things 
dry. However, better chance for showers and thunderstorms will 
affect the area during the late afternoon into Tuesday night as a 
warm front lift across the CWA. As the warm front lifts north a 
southwesterly LLJ will develop and nose into the area overrunning 
the front. This will aid in thunderstorm development that will 
persist through the overnight. Wednesday, a upper level trough moves 
from the Plains into the Upper Midwest. This will force a cold front 
through the area and continue shower and thunderstorm chances on the 
day Wednesday.

After a brief respite from the wet conditions Wednesday night and 
Thursday, the pattern again turns active. The catalyst for the 
active pattern will be a weak upper level shortwave that will move 
from the Upper Midwest into the western Great Lakes sagging a cold 
front into the area. This cold front will stall across the area 
Friday through Saturday night with several rounds of showers and 
thunderstorms possible especially Friday and Saturday night as a 
nocturnal LLJ noses into the area. Mid-range models clear the front 
through the CWA on Sunday for completely different reasons. However, 
the GFS solutions would continue precipitation chances into next 
Monday as a upper level trough moves through the area.


&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1125 PM CDT SAT MAY 5 2018

Mid to high based showers continue to move through the terminals
for the next few hours. Gusty variable winds with these showers
will persist until around 07z, which may result in some erratic
winds upon approach and immediate departure from the terminals.
Once these showers clear the area around 07z, expect VFR
conditions to persist for the remainder of the forecast period.  


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...73
Aviation...Leighton