261 
FNUS73 KDMX 040846
FWSDMX

Spot Forecast for Harmon Lake-Mountain...IA DNR
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
346 AM CDT Fri May 4 2018

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0000 CDT on May 04. 
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

An initial observation at ignition and a mid burn observation are required.

Please relay them to the National Weather Service for each prescribed burn.

.DISCUSSION...

Some drier air to mix down across the northern portion of 
the area this afternoon with RH values dropping into the
25 to 30 percent range. Some gustiness in the winds today
with the lower RH leading to slightly elevated fire danger
values today across the north. However these values should
be limited by wetter fuels from the rainfall over the past
few days.  


.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (20-30 percent). 
Max temperature.....Around 74. 
Min humidity........27 percent. 
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 7 to 15 mph increasing to 12 to 
                    17 mph in the afternoon. 
Mixing height.......300-1300 ft AGL increasing to 7200-8600 ft AGL. 
Transport winds.....West 7 to 14 mph increasing to northwest 21 to 
                    28 mph. 
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low potential for large plume 
                    dominated fire growth or moderate potential for 
                    large plume dominated fire growth. 

TIME (CDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM   
Sky (%).........51     21     2      1      1      2      
Weather cov.....                                          
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   
Tstm cov........                                          
Temp............47     51     62     70     74     74     
RH..............93     80     56     39     30     27     
20 ft wind......W 7    W 8    W 10   NW 15  NW 17  NW 14  
20 ft wind gust.13     14     17     23     23     18     
Mix hgt (ft)....300    600    1300   5200   7700   8600   
Transport wind..W 9    W 8    W 14   NW 23  NW 28  N 24   
Haines index....5      4      3      4      5      5      

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (20-30 percent). 
Min temperature.....Around 50. 
Max humidity........77 percent. 
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 6 to 10 mph. 
Mixing height.......6400-7100 ft AGL decreasing to 300 ft AGL. 
Transport winds.....West 7 to 16 mph shifting to the south 6 to 8 
                    mph in the late evening and overnight. 
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume 
                    dominated fire growth. 

TIME (CDT)      6 PM      9 PM      MIDNGT    3 AM      
Sky (%).........7         7         15        32        
Weather cov.....                                        
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE      
Tstm cov........                                        
Temp............72        64        56        55        
RH..............30        45        62        64        
20 FT wind......NW 10G13  SW 6G9    SW 7G10   SW 7G13   
Mix hgt (ft)....7100      2300      300       300       
Transport wind..NW 16     SW 7      SW 7      S 8       
Haines index....5         5         5         5         

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Slight chance of 
                    showers and thunderstorms late in the 
                    afternoon. 
Max temperature.....Around 79. 
Min humidity........32 percent. 
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 6 to 10 mph. Gusty and erratic 
                    winds expected near thunderstorms late in the 
                    afternoon. 
Mixing height.......300-1400 ft AGL increasing to 7400-9000 ft AGL. 
Transport winds.....West 7 to 14 mph. 
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low potential for large plume 
                    dominated fire growth or moderate potential for 
                    large plume dominated fire growth. 

TIME (CDT)      6 AM         10 AM        2 PM         
Sky (%).........43           53           46           
Weather cov.....                                       
Weather type....NONE         NONE         NONE         
Tstm cov........                                       
Temp............50           66           78           
RH..............77           50           33           
20 FT wind......SW 6G8       SW 8         SW 10G15     
Mix hgt (ft)....300          1400         8100         
Transport wind..S 7          SW 10        W 10         
Haines index....5            3            4            

$$
Forecaster...Beerends
Requested by...Alex Fosado
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1808826.0/DMX
.EMAIL alex.fosado@dnr.iowa.gov