079 
FXUS64 KTSA 011714
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1214 PM CDT Tue May 1 2018

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MVFR ceilings prevailing at all locations will improve to low- 
end VFR ceilings by about 21z, though MVFR ceilings are likely to 
return to many locations after 06z tonight through the end of the
period. Gusty south winds will continue as well, with LLWS 
potential late tonight at KFSM as sfc winds locally back to ESE at
less than 10 knots.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1042 AM CDT Tue May 1 2018/ 

DISCUSSION...
Moisture continues streaming into the area this morning and has
resulted in widespread cloud cover across much of the forecast
area, along with a few very light showers/sprinkles over eastern
OK. Will continue with a moist and strongly capped environment
over the area through tonight, and much of Wednesday in all
likelihood, with warm, breezy and humid springlike conditions.
Mixing depth will be more limited today and thus wind gusts will 
be somewhat lighter, but still a few 30-35 mph gusts can be 
expected. Changes to going forecast are minor and mainly to 
incorporate current conditions.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 557 AM CDT Tue May 1 2018/ 

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MVFR cigs are expected to develop this morning for all TAF sites
with some improvement to VFR later afternoon. MVFR cigs may
redevelop again late Tuesday night. South winds will remain
gusty through the forecast period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 313 AM CDT Tue May 1 2018/ 

DISCUSSION...
An active period of weather is set to unfold mid to late 
week across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas as a 
slow moving storm system is set to impact the area. 

It looks like Today will remain storm-free across eastern 
Oklahoma and western Arkansas as any thunderstorms that 
develop along the dry line remain well north and west of 
the area. The most noticeable change in the weather across 
the area Today will be in the increase in moisture (cloud 
cover).

On Wednesday, most of the day is expected to be dry across 
the area with the potential of a few elevated showers and
thunderstorms during the morning hours. It is uncertain how 
active the dry line will be across western Oklahoma on 
Wednesday with weak ridging aloft and a lack of strong convergence
along the dry line. Thunderstorm activity will likely become 
more widespread across Oklahoma and eventually western Arkansas as we 
move into Wednesday night as the low level jet intensifies and 
the upper level low over the Southwest United States edges closer to 
the area. There is expected to be adequate instability and low level shear 
for any of the thunderstorms to become severe with damaging winds, 
large hail and a few tornadoes all possible.  

The threat for thunderstorms and severe weather continues on Thursday as the 
upper level low ejects to the east-northeast in pieces and eventually pushes
a cold front through the area as we move into the Thursday night-Friday morning 
time-frame. The showers and thunderstorms are expected to exit the area Friday
morning with the exit of the cold front. 

Have kept the remainder of the forecast dry as ridging aloft builds into the 
area behind the departing storm system. Temperatures are expected to 
remain at or above seasonal normals for this time of year. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   80  69  82  68 /  20  10  20  60 
FSM   82  65  83  68 /  20   0  20  40 
MLC   79  67  80  68 /  20   0  20  50 
BVO   80  69  83  69 /  20  10  30  60 
FYV   78  65  80  68 /  20   0  20  50 
BYV   80  64  82  67 /  20   0  20  40 
MKO   79  67  81  68 /  20  10  20  60 
MIO   80  67  82  68 /  20  10  20  60 
F10   78  68  81  68 /  20   0  20  60 
HHW   81  66  81  68 /  20   0  20  50 

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION.....14