065 
FXUS64 KMEG 291719
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1219 PM CDT Sun Apr 29 2018

.UPDATE...
Updated to include the 18z aviation discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1029 AM CDT Sun Apr 29 2018/ 

DISCUSSION...Surface analysis this morning places a 1030 mb ridge
of high pressure over the Great Lakes Region and Ohio Valley. 
This is resulting in sunny skies and temperatures as of 10 AM CDT
in the 50s to lower 60s with the warmest temperatures across North
Mississippi. Overall forecast is in excellent shape and no updates
anticipated at this time.

CJC

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 406 AM CDT Sun Apr 29 2018/ 

DISCUSSION...

Currently...High pressure is settling across the Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys. Cool air continues to filter into the region on
light NE winds. Skies are perfectly clear with temps ranging from
43F at Paris to 55F at Clarksdale.

Today and Tonight...Surface high pressure will drift to the
Tri-Cities area by Monday morning. Expect clear skies and light
easterly flow. Temps will be 7-10 degrees below normal ranging
from the mid 60s to lower 70s though there will be plenty of
sunshine to compensate. Tonight temps will dip into the upper 30s
across the cooler parts of West Tennessee to lower to mid 40s 
elsewhere.

Monday and Tuesday...Surface high pressure shifts to the Atlantic
seaboard while upper ridging moves over the region. Southerly
winds will develop with warming temps. Highs will be in the mid 
to upper 70s on Monday and lower 80s by Tuesday, which is 
actually above normal. By Tuesday afternoon south winds of 10 to 
20 mph with higher gusts are expected. Humidity levels will start 
to creep up with dewpoints in the 50s by Tuesday afternoon. 

Wednesday and Thursday...Upper level ridging continue to
strengthen over the southeast U.S. as a upper trough moves out of
the western U.S. toward the middle of the week. The associated 
front will remain stalled NW of the region during this time frame.
Meanwhile the airmass over the Mid-South will continue to moisten
and warm under the persistent southerly flow with highs in the 
lower to mid 80s and dewpoints climbing into the 60s. Highs will 
be quite mild in the 60s as well. A weak upper level disturbance 
on the periphery of the upper ridge could trigger a shower or 
thunderstorm over the northwest part of the forecast area during 
this period but most places will remain dry.

Thursday night through Saturday...The upper trough will shift east
and push a cold front into the region late Thursday night and
Friday with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. GFS 
and ECMWF are in good agreement with timing. It will be fairly 
unstable with some shear so will continue to monitor for severe 
weather potential but at this time confidence is too low to 
mention in the HWO. Upper trough push east and front pushes south 
on Saturday so most places should be dry by then with temps 
knocked back toward normal. 

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...
/18z TAFs/

Expect clear skies and VFR conditions through the TAF period.
Winds may be gusty from the ENE through mid-afternoon but will
become light and variable around sunset. Southeast winds will
resume at 5-8 kts by mid/late Monday morning.

Johnson

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.

&&

$$

065 
FXUS64 KMEG 291719
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1219 PM CDT Sun Apr 29 2018

.UPDATE...
Updated to include the 18z aviation discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1029 AM CDT Sun Apr 29 2018/ 

DISCUSSION...Surface analysis this morning places a 1030 mb ridge
of high pressure over the Great Lakes Region and Ohio Valley. 
This is resulting in sunny skies and temperatures as of 10 AM CDT
in the 50s to lower 60s with the warmest temperatures across North
Mississippi. Overall forecast is in excellent shape and no updates
anticipated at this time.

CJC

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 406 AM CDT Sun Apr 29 2018/ 

DISCUSSION...

Currently...High pressure is settling across the Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys. Cool air continues to filter into the region on
light NE winds. Skies are perfectly clear with temps ranging from
43F at Paris to 55F at Clarksdale.

Today and Tonight...Surface high pressure will drift to the
Tri-Cities area by Monday morning. Expect clear skies and light
easterly flow. Temps will be 7-10 degrees below normal ranging
from the mid 60s to lower 70s though there will be plenty of
sunshine to compensate. Tonight temps will dip into the upper 30s
across the cooler parts of West Tennessee to lower to mid 40s 
elsewhere.

Monday and Tuesday...Surface high pressure shifts to the Atlantic
seaboard while upper ridging moves over the region. Southerly
winds will develop with warming temps. Highs will be in the mid 
to upper 70s on Monday and lower 80s by Tuesday, which is 
actually above normal. By Tuesday afternoon south winds of 10 to 
20 mph with higher gusts are expected. Humidity levels will start 
to creep up with dewpoints in the 50s by Tuesday afternoon. 

Wednesday and Thursday...Upper level ridging continue to
strengthen over the southeast U.S. as a upper trough moves out of
the western U.S. toward the middle of the week. The associated 
front will remain stalled NW of the region during this time frame.
Meanwhile the airmass over the Mid-South will continue to moisten
and warm under the persistent southerly flow with highs in the 
lower to mid 80s and dewpoints climbing into the 60s. Highs will 
be quite mild in the 60s as well. A weak upper level disturbance 
on the periphery of the upper ridge could trigger a shower or 
thunderstorm over the northwest part of the forecast area during 
this period but most places will remain dry.

Thursday night through Saturday...The upper trough will shift east
and push a cold front into the region late Thursday night and
Friday with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. GFS 
and ECMWF are in good agreement with timing. It will be fairly 
unstable with some shear so will continue to monitor for severe 
weather potential but at this time confidence is too low to 
mention in the HWO. Upper trough push east and front pushes south 
on Saturday so most places should be dry by then with temps 
knocked back toward normal. 

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...
/18z TAFs/

Expect clear skies and VFR conditions through the TAF period.
Winds may be gusty from the ENE through mid-afternoon but will
become light and variable around sunset. Southeast winds will
resume at 5-8 kts by mid/late Monday morning.

Johnson

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.

&&

$$